By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A: A preferred horse to watch                         B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

4^th race [Md 40000, 1 /16 mi TURF] – (6) Kara Para will move from dirt to turf where she began her career with a pair of fourth-place finishes and one of them was in her debut at Saratoga. She has been off since February probably waiting for the return of grass racing. (8) Welcometomyworld gets blinkers on after running second for a $20,000 tag in his first start of the year and now moves back to turf where he won start last year. (7) Electorate was well bet to 2-1 in a pair of starts on the grass at Tampa Bay Downs for Chad Brown. (3) Oak Loves a Fight had a series of top three finishes on the grass at Saratoga and Aqueduct and makes her 2023 debut.

5^th race [Alw 50000s, 1 mi] – (1) Norgay (D) set the pace two weeks ago, faded to fifth after getting bet down from 5-1 to 3-1, and now cuts back from nine-furlongs to the one-turn mile where he won twice. (6) Achilles Heel (B) was bumped and had to check at the 1/16^th pole and still continued to improve his position and finished second. (5) Mandatory (C) set the pace and ended up second in a starter allowance after getting bet from 7-1 to 7-2. (2) Salto de Tigre was second and third in two recent starter allowances.

7^th race [Alw 82000 N1X, 6F TURF] – (5) Ikigai (D) was bet down from 12-1 to 8-1 in a first-level allowance when he was a close fourth after setting the pace. (3) Sosua Summer has two improved starts this year on the grass at Gulfstream Park after a layoff. (1) Kawhi Me a River has been off since June and has never run a bad race on the turf. (6) Winter Son won a starter allowance on the turf at Saratoga to end his 3-year-old campaign. He returned on the dirt last month in what appeared to be a prep race.

8^th race [NY, Md 25000, 6F] – (3) Gentleman Burglar was bet to 9-2 in his debut last month, set the pace, and finished fourth for a trainer that is good with second-time starters. (10) Barone Marchis was last seen at Saratoga running third at this level after a rough trip. (7) Mr. Busta pressed the pace and finished second while making a huge improvement having been far behind in his first three starts. (6) Dakota’s Destiny will make his debut for Natalia Lynch who had a high-priced winner with a maiden claimer previously.

Best bets: Ikigai (7^th); Gentleman Burglar (8^th). Best value: Kara Para (4^th); Norgay (5^th).