Keeneland Select

Aqueduct Hotlist - April 6

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A:
A preferred horse to watch                                 B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race [Md Sp Wt, 6 ½ F] – (1) Laser Sharp finished second in all three of his starts. His last two speed figures are way better than any of the horses that have run already. (7) Two Tons of Fun was fourth in his debut last month at 4-1. These are connections that typically bet when they have a horse that can run. (8) Supremacy Clause will make his first start for Chad Brown with Lasix. (4) Guile is a home-bred son of Blame from a trainer that can win with a first-time starter.

2nd race [NY, Alw 82000 N1X, 6F] – (4) Fortune’s Nephew takes the blinkers off after a failed attempt with the shades on. Before that he ran five times and hit the board in all of them. (7) Kazmike was a NY-bred stakes winner last year after a pair of seconds and now returns from a long layoff. (2) Persistent Danger will race against state-breds after many good efforts that include four wins. (1) Little Luca and (1A) Messi the Magician have best efforts that make them contenders in this field.

3rd race [Clm 16000, 1 mi] – (8) Digital was claimed for $40,000 and ran third then for $25,000 with an earlier victory at Churchill Downs for $40,000. (2) Bourbon Calling and (2B) Gut Feeling are both win contenders at this level. (4) Candy Tycoon returned from a layoff and was claimed for $20,000 and makes his third start following the break. (7) Wild Banker has 11 top three finishes in his career at the Big A.

4th race [Carter Handicap (G2), 7F] – (4) Super Chow won a pair of Grade 3 stakes at Aqueduct this winter with excellent speed figures. (5) Petulante came back from an eight-month layoff and finished third beaten by less than a length for the top spot after winning a Grade 3 at Monmouth Park last summer. (3) Post Time ships up from Maryland with 7 wins from 8 career starts including three stakes in a row with the General George (G3) most recently. He has triple digit Beyer Speed Figures in his two races. (2) Whittington Park won his last two starts in a NY-bred stakes race and an open company allowance.

5th race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 6F] – (2) Calling an Audible (C) was bet down from 6-1 to 4-1 and battled for the lead the entire race losing a head bob for the top spot. (7) Focus Pocus had a pair of seconds at Saratoga to start her career and returns from a six month layoff. (9) Five to Two was either second or third in her four starts to date for Linda Rice. (8) Pamplona Red is a daughter of Accelerate making her first start for West Point Thoroughbreds with a steady series of workouts getting faster recently.

6th race [Distaff (G3), 7F] – (4) Hot Fudge won her last five starts with three stakes races at Aqueduct recently. (2) Ain’t Broke won 4 out of her last five starts with a third in the Interborough at the Big A. (1) Apple Picker won the Barbara Fritchie (G3) last time at Laurel Park with a closing trip going seven furlongs. (5) Fingal’s Cave began her career with four victories including a NY-bred stakes race. Her only loss was at Keeneland when she was second in the Raven Run (G2). She came back from a layoff to win another NY-bred stakes race in December.

7th race [Alw 82000 N1X, 1 mi] – (6) Vespucci (A) returned from a debut victory at Monmouth Park in June, pressed the pace, got the lead, and missed the win by a nose in his first start against winners after breaking slowly. (7) Bendoog ran sixth in the 2023 Dubai World Cup (G1) and then changed to the barn of Bill Mott. After an eight month layoff he was third in an Aqueduct allowance in his American debut. Now he comes back from a November layoff. (3) Lucency was second just a nose behind after winning his maiden race since changing to the Rick Dutrow barn. (9) Mistical Curlin returned from a four month layoff, broke through the gate, got to the lead, but then faded.

8th race [Gazelle (G3), 1 1/8 mi] – (1) Where’s My Ring is still a maiden after seven races but was second last time in the Santa Ysabel (G3) behind the best filly on the west coast. She has the two top speed figures in this field. (7) Gin Gin won the Busanda two races back with a closing trip going the nine furlongs and a fast pace is expected in this race. (9) Carmelina had three stakes wins before coming to Aqueduct for the first time in the Busher and ran second after setting the pace. (5) Life Talk won the Demoiselle (G2) last year, was fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), and third in the Frizette (G1).

9th race [Bay Shore, 7F] – (4) Maximus Meridius shipped up to New York, set the pace in the strong Gotham (G3) field, and finished fourth. Before that he won a maiden and an allowance by a combined margin of 14 lengths. The cutback to seven-furlongs should be ideal. (7) Proprietary Trade made a huge improvement in his second start when he broke his maiden by almost five lengths with the best speed figure in the field. (6) Reasoned Analysis broke his maiden in his third start cutting back to a one-turn race. (1) Mission Beach did not appreciate the muddy, sealed track last time and won an allowance with a closing move before that.

10th race [Wood Memorial (G2), 1 1/8 mi] – (4) Deterministic is undefeated in two starts with his maiden victory at Saratoga and then his win in the Gotham (G3) going the one-turn mile. The way he travelled in his last start the added distance should not be a problem. He already has enough qualifying points to give his trainer Christophe Clement his first Kentucky Derby runner. (9) Tuscan Sky also won his first two starts in a sprint at Aqueduct in January and then an allowance going two turns at Fair Grounds. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Wood seven times. (13) Uncle Heavy shipped up from Parx to win the Withers (G3) going the nine-furlong distance but did not get a positive post-position draw. (1) Resilience looks like a late-developing colt for Bill Mott that won his maiden two races back at Gulfstfream Park and looked good running fourth in the Risen Star (G2) behind three horses that won on the Kentucky Derby trail.

11th race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 6F] – (2) Ariana Rye (A) made her first career start at 3-1 in February, pressed the pace, finished second, and gets first-time Lasix. (1) Peony has thirds in both starts of her career which came this year. Both of her speed figures were better than the rest of the field. (9) Better Be Smart was sent off at 5-2 in her first career start last month, pressed the pace, and finished third. (3) Granadilla was 3-1 in her debut in September and flashed some early speed.

Best bets: Laser Sharp (1st); Deterministic (10th). Best value: Calling an Audible (5th); Vespucci (7th).

Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 5-7 and includes the Distaff (G3) à 2, 7 with 1, 2, 4, 5 with 3, 6, 7 = $24.

No.NameLetter
last race
Today's RaceComments
(2)Calling an AudibleC on 3/75Lost a head bob for the win.
(6)VespucciA on 3/97Returned from a long layoff to run second.
(2)Ariana RyeA on 2/2411She was well bet in her debut and finished second.