Keeneland Select

Belmont at Aqueduct Hotlist - May 4

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A:
A preferred horse to watch                                 B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2nd race [OC 80K/N1X, 1 mi] – (1) Patricia Ann (A) raced six-wide and finished a game second in her first try against winners. (4) Autumn Evening made her first start of the year a winning one while running her first time for Rick Dutrow. (2) Play Good Pay Good was an open length front-end winner in a starter allowance last month. (3) Camera broke her maiden in her third try for Todd Pletcher as a filly that was purchased for $1.05 million as a Saratoga yearling.

3rd race [Clm 50000, 1 mi] – (3) Magnolia Midnight (C) was bet down from 7-1 to 5-1, set the pace, finished second and moved back to the claiming ranks where he won most recently. (7) Bold Endeavor was claimed for $62,500 in January by Linda Rice when she missed by a nose and earned a race high speed figure. (5) Gentleman Joe rallied to be second by a head in a $50,000 claimer last weekend. (2) Market Alert was claimed 3 times in his last 4 starts where she was reclaimed twice. He finished in the top three in his last six starts with two victories since February.

4th race [Alw 50000s, 1 mi] – (2) Mighty Atlas (B) broke open the gate before the start and then used a stalking trip to miss the victory by only a nose in his second start following a seven-month layoff. (1) Lucency was a winner last time and was claimed for $40,000. He is projected to get loose on the lead in a slow-paced race. (3) Debate has a pair of races this year since a five-month layoff when he was a winner for $40,000 and was taken by Rice. (5) Nineteen Oysters finished in the top three in three races this year and make his second start at this level.

10th race [Ruffian (G2), 1 mi] – (5) Ain’t Broke (C) was bet down from 9-2 to 2-1, got taken up early, got to the lead, but then yielded to get second. She has seven top three finishes and in her last seven starts including the Distaff (G3) last month and won 4 out of her last 6 races.  (1) Randomized makes her first start of the year since running second in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff behind the champion older dirt female. She won three races in a row for Chad Brown heading into the Breeders’ Cup with those victories coming in the Alabama (G1), Beldame (G2) and the Wilton at Saratoga. (2) Green Up travelled to Santa Anita to make her 2024 debut and finished third in the Beholder Mile (G1) behind a pair of top runners including Adare Manor. She was a stakes winner in November at Aqueduct. (6) Shidabhuti returned from a nine-month layoff to win the Distaff (G3) at Aqueduct. Three of her four victories happened at the Big A for Chad Brown.

Best bets:  Magnolia Midnight (3rd); Mighty Atlas (4th). Best value: Patricia Ann (2nd); Ain’t Broke (10th).

Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 2-4 à 1, 2, 3, 4 with 3, 5, 7 with 1, 2 = $24.

No.NameLetter
last race
Today's RaceComments
(1)Patricia AnnA on 3/282Ran a game second against winners.
(3)Magnolia MidnightC on 3/303Moves back to the claiming ranks where he last was a winner.
(2)Mighty AtlasB on 4/13      4Used a stalking trip to miss the win by a nose.
(5)Ain’t BrokeC on 4/610Got taken up early and finished second after getting to the lead.