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Keeneland Select

Belmont Park Hotlist - October 21

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
 A:
A preferred horse to watch                                 B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2nd race [Md Sp Wt, 6F] – (5) Value Area (C) was bet down from 10-1 to 5-1 in her second start for Todd Pletcher, pressed the pace, got the lead, and finished second beating a heavy favorite and running behind a horse that came back to win her next start also. (4) Don’t Say It made her debut on the grass last month at Aqueduct which is a move that Brad Cox often uses. (3) Matagora Bay set the early pace in the same race as the Hot List horse and finished fifth. Bill Mott usually does better with his second time starters. (7) Street View was 5-1 in her first start for George Weaver which was on the turf at the Big A and Irad stays on board.

6th race [Md Sp Wt, 6F] – (1) Aleah Aleah (D) was heavily bet for his debut becoming the 9-5 favorite after being 5-1 earlier in the betting. He pressed the pace and needed the race. (3) For Your Pleasure will make his first start for a trainer that is good with young horses. He was a $200,000 purchase in March from a sire with a $5,000 stud fee and had a bullet workout at Belmont Park best out of 144 going 4F. (7) J D Factor will make his first start for Rick Dutrow. (6) Rathmore pressed the pace and had the lead in his first start for a trainer that rarely wins with debut maidens but is 20% with next out runners.

7th race [Alw 50000s, 1 mi] – (9) Thunderian was an easy winner of a $50,000 open claimer following a third in a starter allowance. (10) Brooklyn Diamonds was claimed in Kentucky by Linda Rice in June and then won twice, last time by more than nine lengths with a career best speed figure. (7) Baron’s Legacy won his first start in January at 8-1 at Aqueduct and was then off until last month when he got bumped and taken up in a starter allowance. (3) Magical Ways won his last two starts and was claimed both times. He comes back after just six days when he won by eight lengths at Aqueduct.

8th race [Alw 100000 N1X, 1 mi] – (5) Macallan was last seen in February when he rallied to finish second for Pletcher and returns in a race where a fast pace is expected. Irad takes the mount. (7) Rocco Strong is another late runner getting a great pace set-up. He won four times and all of them were at Aqueduct. He improved significantly after getting claimed for $32,000 in June. (1) Quality Chic changed barns to David Jacobson, improved steadily, and got his maiden win by six lengths. (9) Cape Trafalgar was second to a return winner at Saratoga with a closing move.

Best bets:  Thunderian (7th); Macallan (8th). Best value: Value Area (2nd); Aleah Aleah (6th).

Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 6-8  à 1, 3, 6, 7 with 7, 9, 10 with 5, 7 = $24.

No.NameLetter
last race
Today's RaceComments
(5)Value AreaC on 9/172Made a big improvement in second start.
(1)Aleah AleahD on 9/146Heavily bet to be the favorite in his first start.