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Keeneland Select

Breeders' Cup Saturday FULL CARD Hotlist - November 4, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

1st race – [Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G2), 1 5/8 mi] – (1) Time for Trouble moves back to the dirt where his better races have been lately. At Saratoga he was second behind the best long distance dirt horse.  (6) Kiss Today Goodbye came back from a layoff and ran a big race in the Tokyo City (G3) but it has been a long time since he was a winner. (5) Salesman ran a good third in his first dirt start for Richard Mandella. (3) Siskany will make his first start on the dirt for Charlie Appleby after dirt and synthetic racing in Europe.

2nd race – [Twilight Derby (G2), 1 1/8 mi TURF] - (6) Webslinger is a Grade 2 stakes winner that had the lead in the Saratoga Derby (G1) and got nipped at the wire in his most recent start. (8) Almendares had an allowance win and was second in the Del Mar Derby (G2) since moving to the turf and going to the American barn of Phil D’Amato. (7) Seal Team got a career best speed figure in an allowance victory last time. (12) Silver Knott was third in the Secretariat (G2) at Colonial Downs and returns as a new gelding for Appleby.

3rd race – Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) [1 mi] – (4) Zozos won 4 out of his last 5 starts including the Ack Ack (G3) at Churchill Downs for Brad Cox who won this race with Knicks Go in 2020. He is projected to get loose on the lead. (3) Cody’s Wish won this race last year and since then was victorious in 3 out of 4 races this year. He will sit his usual stalking trip. (1) Stage Raider was second to Zozos in the Ack Ack. (6) Skippylongstocking opted for the Dirt Mile over the Classic and won the last time in the CT Classic (G2) in August at Charles Town.

4th race – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) [1 ¼ mi TURF] – (2) Warm Heart won 5 out of her last 6 starts with a pair of Group 1 victories in France and England.  She will cut back from 1 ½ mile races for the team of Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore. (8) Fev Rover was a front-end winner of the E.P. Taylor (G1) at Woodbine a month ago. (11) Lumiere Rock was third in the Prix de l’Opera (G1) for Joseph O’Brien at Longchamps behind two outstanding fillies (6) Inspiral won a Group 1 at a mile at Newmarket and won another Group 1 against the boys the race before that.

5th race – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) [7F]– (7) Society  is a speedy frontrunner for Steve Asmussen that won her last two races going seven furlongs. (5) Kirstenbosch had a big closing victory last time at Santa Anita which is the preferred running style in a seven furlong race with a fast pace. (1) Goodnight Olive won this race last year. She has an impeccable record of 11: 8-2-1. (4) Matareya won the Derby Day Distaff (G1) and is the winner of three races at this distance.

6th race – Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) [1 mi] – (10) Songline has raced extensively against the guys with a pair of Group 1 victories in Japan. She has earnings over $6.2 million. (14) Master of The Seas won the Woodbine Mile (G1) in August and then was second by a nose in the Turf Mile (G1) for Charlie Appleby. (2) Gina Romantica won the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland with the best effort of her career for Chad Brown. (3) Casa Creed has run in the Breeders’ Cup before and prepped for this start with two wins at Saratoga at a mile including the Fourstartdave (G1).

7th race – Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) [1 1/8 mi] – (9) Clairiere gets an ideal set-up for her closing move after a couple of starts where things did not go her way. (7) Wet Paint is the other closer that should benefit from the anticipated fast pace. She had four wins this year with three on the road to the Kentucky Oaks and then the CCA Oaks (G1) at Saratoga. (4) Idiomatic has four wins in a row and the last two were in Grade 1s racing on the lead. (3) Pretty Mischievous has been the leader of the 3-year-old filly division since winning the Kentucky Oaks (G1). She is another late runner.

8th race – Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) [1 ½ mi TURF] – (9) Mostahdaf won his last two starts in Group 1 races at York and Royal Ascot. (2) Onesto was third in the l’Arc de Triomphe and non-winners of the Arc have done very well in the Breeders’ Cup. (5) Auguste Rodin won three Group 1 races this year with two in Ireland and another at Epsom for O’Brien and Moore. (11) King of Steel won the Champion Stakes (G1) at Ascot just two weeks ago. Frankie Dettori stays on board.

9th race – Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) [1 ¼ mi] – (3) White Abarrio was an impressive winner of the Whitney Stakes (G1) in his second start with one of the highest speed figures on the year after being moved to the barn of Rick Dutrow Jr. He was also a Grade 1 winner of the Florida Derby. (8) Ushba Tesoro has dominated racing on the dirt in Japan and in the Dubai World Cup (G1) to the total of $9.5 million in earnings. This will be his first trip to North America. (11) Bright Future is a lightly race 4-year-old son of Curlin that won his last two starts with the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) in September at Saratoga for Todd Pletcher and Repole and St. Elias Stables. (2) Zandon rarely runs a bad a race as is shown by his record of 13: 3-6-3 and $2.1 million in earnings. He got back to the winner’s circle in the Woodward (G1) last month.

10th race – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) [5F TURF] – (10) Motorious came back from a May layoff to win a Grade 3 at Del Mar at today’s five furlong turf distance. Flavien Prat gets back on after winning with him a few times. (1) Big Invasion won five races in a row at last year and continued to win in 2023 with a closing move in the Nearctic (G2) at Woodbine. (9) Roses for Debra won her first four starts of this year and Irad stays on board. (12) Arzak was the winner of the Woodford (G2) at Churchill with the best race of his career.

11th race – Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) [6F] - (8) Elite Power won this race last year as part of a seven-race winning streak. He moves back to six furlongs which is his best distance. (9) Gunite has been the main rival of Elite Power this year. He got the best of Elite Power going seven furlongs. (1) Nakatomi came back from a layoff to finish second in the Phoenix (G2) at Keeneland. (7) Speed Boat Beach made his 2023 debut in September for Bob Baffert and missed winning the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2) by a head.

12th race – [Alw 100000 N1X, 6 ½ F TURF] – (8) Real Fire has two recent wins on the downhill turf course at Santa Anita. (7) Gem Mine has several top three finishes that make her likely to get into the trifecta. (3) Irish Patsy won 2 out of her last 3 starts and cuts back in distance for Michael McCarthy. (12) Arinniti makes her American debut for Mandella with a maiden victory at Dundalk in Ireland.

Saturday Pick 3 Special:
In the Breeders’ Cup races 8-10 include the Turf, Classic, and Turf Sprint. $1 Pick 3 2, 4, 5, 9, 11 with 3, 8 with 1, 9, 10 = $30.