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Churchill Downs Hotlist - April 29

April 28, 2021

Today’s Churchill Downs Hot List races to watch
Thursday, April 29, 2021

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:     

A : A preferred horse to watch                   B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

3rd race – (6) Tea Olive debuts for Ward off some sharp works and should prove best in a tough field. (5) Twenty Four Mamba has put in some solid gate works and may be the main threat. (3) Gunite could be ready for a big effort in his debut. (2) Big Redwhiteblue might be competitive in this spot. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-5-6.

6th race – (4) Keep Your Distance (C) dropped from 6-5 to 4-5 and notched a third straight win. Can make it four in a row today. (3) Radiantrithym (C) was bet down from 7-5 to 6-5 and made it two straight wins. Seems like the main rival. (5) Lil Miss Hot Mess should be a threat in the final furlong. (7) Centerfold Angel was a game second and can’t be ignored here. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4. Exactas: 3-4 over 5-7 and 5-7 over 3-4.

8th race – (2) Sayyaaf (A) has a pair of frontrunning wins in his last two starts and can make it a trio against this bunch. (6) Epic Dreamer was an easy winner at Tampa and merits respect here. (5) Set Piece should be a factor in the final furlong against this bunch. (1) Gray’s Fable could be tough to catch from the rail. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-5-6. Doubles: 1-2-5-6 with 1-2-5-7. Pick 3: 1-2-5-6 with 1-2-5-7 with 1-2-3-5.

9th race – (1) Primacy has been training sharply for her first race since August and seems capable of winning off the layoff. (7) Skinny Dip was an easy winner in an off-the-turfer and figures to be a main threat. (2) Break Curfew was second in her last two starts and belongs in the exotics. (5) Listen Up has enough speed to be dangerous in the stretch. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-7. Exactas: 1-7 over 2-5 and 2-5 over 1-7. Doubles: 1-2-5-7 with 1-2-3-5.

10th race – (2) Change of Control (C) took late money to dip from 13-1 to 8-1 and posted a sharp victory in a stakes. Will be tough to handle if she can duplicate that try. (1) Into Mystic weakened late last time but may hang on here. (3) Lady Grace has been absent for six months and will be dangerous if there’s no rust. (5) Foxxy Belle owns two straight wins and should not be overlooked. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-3-5.



Letter/Last race

Today’s race










C, 4/8

6 CD

Seeks a third straight win







Keep Your Distance

C, 4/16

6 CD

Owns three straight wins








A, 3/27

8 CD

Posted back-to-back victories







Change of Control

C, 4/10

10 CD

Comes off a solid victory