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Keeneland Select

Churchill Downs Hotlist - November 15

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch                   B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (1) Neon Deion was second last time and should get the victory here. (4) Dunphy drops after a neck loss against better company and is the one to fear. (3) Family Factor may wake up in a claimer. (6) Bettering should be more competitive here. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-4-6.

3rd race – (7) Harold’s Cloud hasn’t raced since March but is working sharply for his comeback. (6) Shotshell has speed and could be hard to catch. (4) Kentucky Bourbon ships in from California and fits in nicely. (3) Tropic Storm was a good third last time and will be in the picture again. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-6-7.

5th race – (1) Free Look switches to Cox’s barn and should prevail from the rail. (2) Empirical View is nicely spotted in this field. (8) Best Performer finally broke her maiden last time and should be a threat against winners. (9) Tituba is better suited by this distance after racing 1 ½ miles last time. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-8-9.

7th race – (1) Love Spell (D) dropped from 7-2 to 5-2 then tired badly. Can perk up off the Maker claim. (4) Lord Grantham should be the one to catch. (2) Bolt Above adds blinkers and might improve. (8) Vale will find the going easier here. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place.  Exacta box: 1-2-4-8.

9th race – (8) Charleston was fifth in MSW company and should respond favorably to a drop into a claimer. (11) Catalina Crush was second last time and figures to be the main threat. (9) Timing Difference seems ready for a good effort in his debut. (2) Give Me Liberty merits attention in his debut. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-8-9-11.

No.Letter/Last raceToday’s race  Comment     
  (1)Love SpellD, 9/307 CDShould improve off the Maker claim