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Keeneland Select

Churchill Downs Hotlist - November 16

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch                   B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (5) Tiger Moon was a game second last time and should return to the winner’s circle here. (4) Best of Greeley won easily and was claimed by Morse. Can’t be ignored. (6) Indian Gulch should be a contender in this field. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-5-6. Doubles: 4-5-6 with 1-5-6.

2nd race – (5) Megan’s Clara has plenty of speed and could lead throughout here. (1) Altered Shot will be the main threat from the rail. (6) Fashion Rage missed by a head and will be a force. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6.

4th race – (2) Fundamentally tries turf for the first time and is worth a close look. (10) On the Nile debuts for Walsh and seems ready for a strong effort. (11) Luz Divina will be a factor if she draws into the race. (9) Butterfly Queen was third in her turf debut and cannot be ignored. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-9-10-11.

7th race – (1) Flashy Lass broke her maiden with a sharp effort and can repeat that effort from the rail. (4) New Beat had a useful comeback race and should be a main factor here. (10) Poblano will appreciate a dry track. (6) Pigalle is in great form and can be a contender despite facing tougher company. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place.  Exacta box: 1-4-6-10.

9th race – (8) Sweet Mimi drops a bit off a solid second and merits top billing. (12) Controlled Temper will appreciate the added distance. (7) Sister Ella gets some class relief in a claimer. (4) Mydixielanddelight seems on edge for a good showing in her debut. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-7-8-12.