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Churchill Downs Hotlist - November 22

November 20, 2020

Today’s Churchill Downs Hot List races to watch
Sunday, Nov. 22, 2020

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:     

A : A preferred horse to watch                   B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (2) Lake Nimrod (B) tried claimers and turned in a sharp effort, losing by a nose. Should get the job done here. (4) Jacks Luvs Nova rallied for third last time and faces tougher here but should improve off the Asmussen claim. (5) On Your Mark should be a factor at this level. (3) Bold Adventure might put in a better effort off the switch to dirt. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4. Exactas: 2-4 over 3-5 and 3-5 over 2-4.

3rd race - (7) Miss Tapirado is an interesting firster from Mott who is working sharply and deserves top billing. (3) April in Paris raced wide and tired but could rebound here. (1) Financial One might appreciate the cutback to a mile. (4) Whispering Pines has speed and may hang on for a share of the purse. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-7. Exactas: 3-7 over 1-4 and 1-4 over 3-7.

6th race – (1) Takafumi (C) bet down from 13-1 to 7-1 and rallied nicely for second. Can handle this field from the rail. (7) Spin Rate flopped in his first try against winners but might perk up in a claimer. (5) The Feature may appreciate the six-furlong distance. (2) The Big S should be well-suited by the conditions in a claimer. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-7. Exactas: 1-7 over 2-5 and 2-5 over 1-7. Doubles: 1-2-5-7 with 1-4-5-9.

7th race – (1) Bob’s Edge (A) was a promising second in his debut when he weakened late. Should prevail from the rail. (4) Macron showed speed but folded up in a well-bet debut. Might perk up on a dry track. (5) Sound Money was a distant second in his debut and belongs in the exotics. (9) Supremacy is an interesting first-time starter from Cox. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-5-9.

9th race – (7) Milana had no impact in a MSW test but seems a better fit in a claimer. (1) Polished Gem was a wide fourth in her first start in a claimer and will be helped by a rail trip. (3) Jersey Lillie figures to be a main factor here in a claimer. (9) Lucressia might work out a good trip from the outside post. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-7-9.

No.

 

Letter/Last race

Today’s race

Comment

 

 

 

 

 

(2)

Lake Nimrod

B, 10/28

         1 CD

Missed by a nose last time

 

 

 

 

 

(1)

Takafumi

C, 10/23

         6 CD

Finished a solid second

 

 

 

 

 

(1)

Bob’s Edge

A, 10/24

         7 CD

Was a game second in debut