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Keeneland Select

Churchill Downs Hotlist - November 23

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch                   B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

3rd race – (4) Shell Shock takes a big class drop for Asmussen and seems ready for a winning effort. (3) Steel Racer should work out a good trip in this field. (5) Pachanga Loca looks like the one to catch in this field. (7) Theresasilverlinin seeks a third straight win and fits with these. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-5-7. Doubles: 3-4-5-7 with 1-3-4-6. Pick 3: 3-4-5-7 with 1-3-4-6 with 1-2-3-7.

4th race – (6) Different Flame took a nice step forward in his second start and continued improvement should land him in the winners’ circle. (3) Patch O’Brien was gelded after a disappointing try and may perk up here. (1) Title Contender finds easier company here. (4) Track Light should be competitive at this level. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-4-6. Doubles: 1-3-4-6 with 1-2-3-7.

5th race – (3) Ball Gown won easily last time and deserves top billing off the Shirer claim. (2) Pillbox also exits an easy win and could be the main rival. (1) St. Benedicts Prep comes off a solid maiden win and should be considered. (7) Lunar Moth makes her first start since the Asmussen claim. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-3-7.

8th race – (6) Pioneer of Medina moves into Cox’s barn and seems poised for a strong showing. (8) Best Actor figures to be the one to catch in the stretch. (1) O Besos missed by a neck and will benefit from a rail trip. (2) Twilight Blue will be a threat off his best try. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place.  Exacta box: 1-2-6-8. Doubles: 1-2-6-8 with 2-4-5-7.

9th race – (4) Cyclone Mischief has not raced since flopping in the Kentucky Derby but is working brilliantly for his comeback. (2) Ducale had a useful comeback race and should take a step forward in this field. (5) Mr Bob won by a nose and cannot be ignored. (7) Invulnerable will be dangerous if there’s no rust from a layoff since February. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-5-7.