Keeneland Select

Churchill Downs Hotlist - September 15

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch                   B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (1) Summer of Mischief has been popular at the claim box and debuts here for Cox. (3) Mercy Warren looks like the main threat. (7) Stand by You comes off a game victory. (6) Arella Star could be the one to catch. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-6-7.

3rd race – (7) Line of Scrimmage drops into a claimer and looks best here. (12) Noble Eagle also takes a class drop and will be dangerous here. (1) Constitutionreview is a firster who deserves attention. (10) Redeposit will welcome a return to dirt. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-7-10-12.

5th race – (7) Haleakala was third in her debut and can break her maiden today thanks to that experience.  (11) Hear the Queen is an interesting firster from Cox. (8) Sweet Music may prefer dirt after a weak try on turf. (4) Kentucky Smokeshow could contend in her debut. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place.  Exacta box: 4-7-8-11.

7th race – (1) Lemon Muffin gets some class relief while moving back to dirt and looks best. (8) Hey Olivia should be the main threat off an easy maiden win. (12) Red River Magic will be happy to be running on dirt. (7) Benedetta cannot be overlooked here. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-7-8-12. Doubles: 1-7-8-12 with 1-2-3-4.

8th race – (4) Princess Madison was third in the Grade 2 Charles Town Oaks and can prevail here. (3) Mink’s Palace has speed and can hang around until the end. (2) Silver Rose returns to dirt where she does her best running. (1) V V’s Dream hasn’t raced since March but has enough stakes experience to be a contender here. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-3-4.