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Keeneland Select

Churchill Downs Hotlist - September 18

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch                   B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2nd race – (6) Brazen Boy was second in his last two starts and is overdue for a win. (2) Air Cav drops and will be dangerous here. (4) Protégé fits nicely with this group. (7) Tanmancan steps up after a nice comeback effort. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-6-7.

4th race – (3) Vincita ships in from New York and looks best in this spot. (8) Six Kings drops in class and should be the main rival. (5) Higginsville will welcome a return to dirt. (4) Gotta Have Dreams could pose a late threat. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-5-8.

7th race – (3) Sombra Dorada should improve on a dry track. (5) Crazy Cami got off to a rough start last time but can rebound here. (6) Little Blaze returns to dirt where she belongs. (2) Sister Kisses has speed and an inside post and could be tough to catch. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place.  Exacta box: 2-3-5-6. Doubles: 2-3-5-6 with 1-7-9-10. Pick 3: 2-3-5-6 with 1-7-9-10 with 1-8-10-11.

8th race – (9) Pure Force was overmatched in a graded stakes and fits much better here. (7) Billal was second last time and looms the main threat. (10) Save the Trees comes off a nice win and cannot be ignored. (1) Barksdale will be helped by returning to dirt. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-7-9-10. Doubles: 1-7-9-10 with 1-8-10-11.

 9th race – (8) G. Erik was off slow and rallied wide in his debut and deserves a second chance. (11) Reb showed nice improvement last time.  (10) Ky Do Declare will be well-suited on the main track. (1) Golden Ice may benefit from a rail trip. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-8-10-11.