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Keeneland Select

Churchill Downs Hotlist - September 27

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch                   B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (4) Run Smitty Run drops a notch after rallying for second at Saratoga. Seems best here. (6) I Ninety Five comes off a maiden win in sharp form. (3) Vale should do better on dirt. (2) Born Flawless could perk up for a new barn. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-6. Exactas: 4-6 over 2-3 and 2-3 over 4-6.

4th race – (8) Cry If I Want To is a firster from Asmussen who could be tough to catch. (12) Missy Bee drops a notch and should improve in her second start. (5) Walk On By put in a quick work for her first start and looks interesting here. (6) Fasta Lavista Baby adds blinkers and faces claimers for the first time. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 5-6-8-12. Doubles: 5-6-8-12 with 1-3-6-8.

5th race – (1) On a Spree won easily last time and should continue his winning streak while moving to Diodoro’s barn. (3) Randello missed by a neck last time and will be dangerous here. (6) Nordic Light seeks a third straight win and cannot be ignored. (8) Grey Streak has speed and could be tough to catch.  Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-6-8.

7th race – (6) Money Supply was a game second at Saratoga and gets the nod here. (1) Order of Magnitude will benefit from a rail trip. (3) Watasha is worth a close look in his first start for Sharp.  Betting strategy: 6 to win, place.  Exacta box: 1-3-6. Doubles: 1-3-6 with 1-7-8-9.

8th race – (1) Evan Sing broke slowly and lost all chance in a stakes. Should be tough to beat from the rail. (7) Excess Magic was a strong second and looks like the one to fear. (8) Tilted Towers will be a threat on his best try. (9) No Nay Hudson could have a say in the outcome. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-7-8-9.