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Keeneland Select

Churchill Downs Hotlist - September 30

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch                   B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2nd race – (2) Pillbox hasn’t raced since March but is working nicely for her comeback. (3) Sparkle of Hope will be dangerous back in a claimer. (1) Magna Massa should work out a nice ground-saving trip. (5) Dear Lady well be well-suited by dirt. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3. Exactas: 2-3 over 1-5 and 1-5 over 2-3.

4th race – (2) Value Engineer flopped in a stakes but can rebound in this spot. (3) Copper Missile comes off a solid maiden win and should be the main rival. (6) Legal Titan has speed and could be tough to catch. (7) Dumbstruck won his turf debut and merits attention. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-6-7. Doubles: 2-3-6-7 with 1-3-7-8.

5th race – (8) Pursuit of Liberty showed speed in her debut and wound up third. May not look back in this try. (3) Noriskit Nobiscuit put in a sharp work for this and should be a factor. (1) Bump in the Night could be a threat in her debut. (7) Starina seems ready for a solid effort in her debut. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-7-8.

8th race – (9) Ocean Vision ran well in his U.S. debut despite a bad start. Can take a big step forward here. (7) More Than Looks was hurt by a wide trip last time and should be a top threat here. (6) Smokey Mandate looks like the one to catch in the stretch. (11) Gaslight Dancer will be a factor if he can overcome the outside post.  Betting strategy: 9 to win, place.  Exacta box: 6-7-9-11.

11th race – (5) Orbi One missed by a nose last time and makes amends here. (6) Elegant Trip was third in his two starts and belongs in the exotics. (8) Metallurgic should be closing quickly in the stretch. (11) Royal Sandrin did well on synthetics and should handle turf. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 5-6-8-11.