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Keeneland Select

Fair Grounds Tip Sheet - February 18

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track.

 RACE #1    $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET
 
BEST BET:  #3 SHES A LUCKY REBEL
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN3-13Shes a Lucky RebelR Gutierrez
PLACE5-14Mo SmokingJ Loveberry
SHOW9-22CallingB J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD7-28Two JetC J Lanerie
 
ALTERNATE 18-11StarsnmotionL Saez
ALTERNATE 25-16Lightening MoC J Hernandez
    
* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/4/8 BOX
    
 
 RACE #2    $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:30 PM ET
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN3-16ComparativeL Saez
PLACE7-23Sweet ChablisR Gutierrez
SHOW6-12Raggity SandJ Loveberry
WILD CARD9-27Nancy SpainC J Lanerie
 
ALTERNATE 14-11AmisfieldT Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 28-18Persimmon HillD Cohen
    
* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 2/3/7 BOX
    
 
 RACE #3    $70,000 ALLOWANCE
 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:00 PM ET
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN3-14Hard FourD L Parker
PLACE4-15Relic HunterJ Loveberry
SHOW5-16Field of VisionC J Hernandez
WILD CARD6-111Lil WoadieE M Murray
 
ALTERNATE 18-11ATambourine StarJ R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 210-110BlindedbythegeesT J Hebert
    
* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 5/6/11 BOX
    
 
 RACE #4    $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET
 
BEST BET:  #2 MERLAZZA
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN5-22MerlazzaF Geroux
PLACE4-19Huntress for HireB J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW5-14OrnatelyT Gaffalione
WILD CARD10-112Mystical FireE Morales
 
ALTERNATE 110-16Perfect WishC J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 220-13Urban ForceJ Loveberry
    
* EXACTA: 2-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX, 4-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/9 BOX, 4/9/12 BOX
    
 
 RACE #5    $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:00 PM ET
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN6-16QuaternionR Gutierrez
PLACE3-15Bishops BayF Geroux
SHOW4-11First MissionL Saez
WILD CARD5-12UnloadB J Hernandez Jr.
 
ALTERNATE 15-13Ocean CityJ R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 24-11ASt. JohnsT Gaffalione
    
* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
    
 
 RACE #6    $100,000 STAKES
 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:31 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $100,000 ALBERT M STALL MEMORIAL
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN3-13Lake LucerneT Gaffalione
PLACE6-17Trail Ridge RoadJ Loveberry
SHOW4-12Clara PeetersC J Lanerie
WILD CARD4-15Island HideawayR Gutierrez
 
ALTERNATE 15-111Shotgun HottieJ R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 25-14My Philly TwirlF Geroux
    
* EXACTA: 2,3,5,7 Box
* TRIFECTA: 2,3,7/2,3,7,11/2,3,4,5,7,11
 
COMMENTS: LAKE LUCERNE ran better pace numbers in the early part of her last race and then better times in the second half. TRAIL RIDGE ROADs trainer Chris Block does not enter many at this level but hits a 22 percent when he does. CLARA PETERS has a strong late pace edge and it gets bigger if the 11 is not entered. ISLAND HIDEAWAY should not be too far from the leaders at the start and is super dangerous if she is close coming out of the turn.
 
    
 
 RACE #7    $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:02 PM ET
 
BEST BET:  #7 WOODYTHEBIDSPOTTER
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN7-27WoodythebidspotterF Geroux
PLACE9-21Baseline BeaterC J Lanerie
SHOW5-16Gametime GladiatorR Gutierrez
WILD CARD8-19KigaliJ R Velazquez
 
ALTERNATE 18-13Julias WarriorT J Hebert
ALTERNATE 210-111Fightn ReadyE Morales
    
* EXACTA: 7-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 1/6/9 BOX
    
 
 RACE #8    $70,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:33 PM ET
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN3-15First DefenderJ R Velazquez
PLACE5-26BanishingT Gaffalione
SHOW6-18WillakenzieF Geroux
WILD CARD9-24Tapit ShoesL Saez
 
ALTERNATE 18-11CagliostroB J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 25-17DeningtonC J Lanerie
    
* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/8 BOX, 4/6/8 BOX
    
 
 RACE #9    $100,000 STAKES
 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:05 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $100,000 COLONEL POWER STAKES
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN5-28SurveillanceJ Graham
PLACE5-16Manny WahC J Lanerie
SHOW7-21Ice ChocolatR Gutierrez
WILD CARD10-14PyronD Carroll
 
ALTERNATE 19-27AngastonM Murrill
ALTERNATE 25-110My Pal MattieM Murrill
    
* EXACTA: 1,4,6,8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6,8/1,4,6,7,8/1,4,6,7,8,10
 
COMMENTS: This is a race with a lot of question marks. There are a bunch of AEs and horses that have been on the bench for a while. SURVIELLANCEs jockey and trainer combo won four of seven together for a positive return on investment. MANNY WAH has the most zip at the end for this bunch and should be in touch with this crew coming out of the turn. ICE CHOCOLAT might look like a closer on paper but his early pace should put him near the front from go to photo. PYRON should be competitive versus this field and has plenty of back class.
 
    
 
 RACE #10    $250,000 STAKES
 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:37 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $250,000 MINESHAFT STAKES GRADE III
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN4-13Tawny PortF Geroux
PLACE7-26Happy AmericanJ Graham
SHOW10-12Run ClassicR Gutierrez
WILD CARD9-27Pioneer of MedinaL Saez
 
ALTERNATE 16-11Hoist the GoldB J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 28-15Big Blue LineC J Lanerie
    
* EXACTA: 1,2,3,5,6,7/3,6
* TRIFECTA: 2,3,6/2,3,6,7/1,2,3,6,7
 
COMMENTS: TWANY PORT has faced far higher caliber horses than he is catching here. He wins if he runs back to his Jim Dandy Stakes form. HAPPY AMERICAN won two in a row. He could be hard to hold off if he is close coming out of the turn. RUN CLASSIC should be involved from beginning to end. He just needs to run a consistent race from start to finish. PIONEER OF MEDINA upped his internal race numbers from start to finish in his last outing. The same race makes him a prime contender.
 
    
 
 RACE #11    $150,000 STAKES
 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:09 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $150,000 FAIR GROUNDS STAKES GRADE III
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN7-24Gentle SoulR Gutierrez
PLACE3-12Two EmmysJ Graham
SHOW8-17CorelliF Geroux
WILD CARD6-13Cavalry ChargeD Cohen
 
ALTERNATE 18-16PixelateL Saez
ALTERNATE 29-21Tiz the BombB J Hernandez Jr.
    
* EXACTA: 2,4/1,2,3,4,6,7
* TRIFECTA: 2,4,7/2,4,7/1,2,3,4,6,7
 
COMMENTS: GENTLE SOUL is a versatile soul as he can win from the front or middle or back. He should be really comfortable versus mostly one dimensional horses. TWO EMMYS has three wins with four seconds and a third in 10 at the Fair Grounds. CORELLI has a powerful late surge and has a lot of room to up his game in the second start after more than a year in the barn. CAVALRY CHARGE could be a little bit of a price play. He has some back class and tied the best turf number for this group.
 
    
 
 RACE #12    $300,000 STAKES
 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:41 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $300,000 RACHEL ALEXANDRA STAKES GRADE II
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN6-52Hoosier PhillyE Morales
PLACE8-11VahvaL Saez
SHOW8-54Chop ChopF Geroux
WILD CARD9-25Pretty MischievousT Gaffalione
 
ALTERNATE 112-16MiracleJ R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 212-13KnockyoursocksoffF Prat
    
* EXACTA: 2/1,4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/1,4/1,4,5
 
COMMENTS: HOOSIER PHILLY is yet to be tested in three races with comments like frolicked or easily. VAHVA has the ability to pull off the upset if she handles two turns better in the second try. A few nice workouts between races suggest she will improve today. CHOP CHOP ran the highest last race speed figure as a beaten favorite in her first outing since the Breeders Cup. Her thin resume says she will pick up the output today. Take your pick from the rest as they are most likely running for third at best.
 
    
 
 RACE #13    $400,000 STAKES
 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:14 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $400,000 RISEN STAR STAKES GRADE II
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN3-113Victory FormationF Prat
PLACE12-114Private CreedT Gaffalione
SHOW6-18Tapits ConquestF Geroux
WILD CARD8-14DeterminedlyR Gutierrez
 
ALTERNATE 112-111Silver HeistC J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 28-110Two PhilsJ Loveberry
    
* EXACTA: 8,13,14/4,8,10,11,13,14
* TRIFECTA: 13,14/8,13,14/4,8,10,11,13,14
 
COMMENTS: VICTORY FORMATION has a plus advantage over this field when you combine early and late pace numbers. PRIVATE CREED never finished out of the money in six starts and has the ability to compete from any position on the track. TAPITS CONQUEST got off to a sluggish start in his last finishing second by a neck. Some strong workouts at Fair Grounds between races say he will be sharper today. DETERMINEDLY is a different horse after returning to dirt following three races on grass. He puts forth consistent effort but might be missing that ability to take it up a notch. He is who he is as Dennis Green might say.