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Keeneland Select

Fair Grounds Tip Sheet - March 25

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 64% of the time at this track

 RACE #1    $100,000 STAKES
 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:00 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $100,000 CRESCENT CITY DERBY
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN5-18Late SeptemberL Saez
PLACE9-55Allnight MoonlightF Geroux
SHOW10-14Mor Big LeeE J Barrera
WILD CARD6-13I Dont VenmoJ Rosario
 
ALTERNATE 17-21BenoitB J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 26-17MangumT Thornton
    
* EXACTA: 3,4,5,8 Box
* TRIFECTA: 5,8/4,5,8/3,4,5,7,8
 
COMMENTS: LATE SEPTEMBER is usually well backed by horseplayers and popped to a nice win the last time he returned from a layoff. ALLLNIGHT MOONLIGHT went wire to wire in the last two and neither was very close. He could be hard to catch again today. MOR BIG LEE usually makes up ground at the end of races which should help him the first time he goes long today. I DONT VENMO might be better suited for turn but does carry plenty of late punch and could clean up gimmicks.
 
    
 
 RACE #2    $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:30 PM ET
 
BEST BET:  #5 KINGS GLORY
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN4-15Kings GloryJ Rosario
PLACE5-24CastlewardenF Geroux
SHOW3-12Billy JackR Santana Jr.
WILD CARD5-16Harbour BridgeF Prat
 
ALTERNATE 110-11Coaches MeetingR Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 220-18River RaftJ P Vargas
    
* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX
    
 
 RACE #3    $100,000 STAKES
 1 MILE 70 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $100,000 CRESCENT CITY OAKS
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN7-52Free Drop MaddyR Gutierrez
PLACE4-15Olivia GD L Parker
SHOW5-14Guitar WomanE Nieves
WILD CARD7-21Alpine MistV Del-Cid
 
ALTERNATE 15-17New DestinyF Geroux
ALTERNATE 215-13Star MomentC J Lanerie
    
* EXACTA: 2/1,3,4,5,7
* TRIFECTA: 2/1,4,5,7/1,3,4,5,7
 
COMMENTS: FREE DROP MADDY is a single candidate for the opening pick 4 and 5 bets. OLIVIA G is always close finishing as a bridesmaid five of five. GUITAR WOMAN has been close to the top pick in two of three matchups. ALPINE MIST has some versatility as she can pressure the leader or close.
 
    
 
 RACE #4    $100,000 STAKES
 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:30 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $100,000 COSTA RISING STAKES
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN9-59Bron and BrowR Gutierrez
PLACE7-28Big ChopperC J Lanerie
SHOW6-14Berties GalaxyF Geroux
WILD CARD9-21Yankee SevenA Green
 
ALTERNATE 12-110Swot AnalysisB J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 26-112Mike JM Pedroza Jr.
    
* EXACTA: 1,4,8,9 Box
* TRIFECTA: 1,4,8,9 Box
 
COMMENTS: BRON AND BROW should run the most complete race with the best combination of early and late speed. BIG CHOPPERs trainer Scott Geiner wins at 18 percent taking his horse from a sprint to a route and back to a sprint like today. BERTIES GALAXY runs his best on the front and will be gunning from the gate. YANKEE SEVEN is back to defend his title but will need to run faster today than he did in his last race.
 
    
 
 RACE #5    $75,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:00 PM ET
 
BEST BET:  #6 MERLAZZA
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN9-56MerlazzaF Geroux
PLACE8-11Miss Tappy ToneA Castillo
SHOW9-25Bru Na BoinneR Gutierrez
WILD CARD12-18Sweet AlyssaJ Graham
 
ALTERNATE 15-19HuntleighC J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 210-13Nomadic PrideE Morales
    
* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/5/8 BOX
    
 
 RACE #6    $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN8-12Master SomR Santana Jr.
PLACE8-13Golden ViewR Gutierrez
SHOW7-25Twin MischiefJ Rosario
WILD CARD4-18ConceptualizeL Saez
 
ALTERNATE 15-112Angora DebF Prat
ALTERNATE 210-19Sandra DJ Graham
    
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 3/5/8 BOX
    
 
 RACE #7    $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:00 PM ET
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN7-214Mystical FireE Morales
PLACE9-28DialherupF Geroux
SHOW4-16Sweet ChablisR Gutierrez
WILD CARD8-13Raggity SandF Prat
 
ALTERNATE 18-112CorsiniC J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 28-15Graceful UnionC J Hernandez
    
* EXACTA: 14-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/8/14 BOX, 3/6/8 BOX
    
 
 RACE #8    $100,000 STAKES
 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:32 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $100,000 TOM BENSON MEMORIAL STAKES
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN9-28She Cant SingB J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE2-11AdventuringL Saez
SHOW5-19New Years EveF Prat
WILD CARD3-16DidiaV Cheminaud
 
ALTERNATE 112-17TrobairitzF Geroux
ALTERNATE 212-12New BossD L Parker
    
* EXACTA: 1,6,8,9 Box
* TRIFECTA: 1,8,9/1,8,9/1,2,6,7,8,9
 
COMMENTS: SHE CANT SING is the defending champion and is working well leading up to her defense of the crown. ADVENTURINGs jockey and trainer combo of Luis Saez and Brad Cox won four of seven together and hit the board 100 percent. NEW YEARS EVE is a real steady high end performer that will charge late but there might not be a lot of speed to chase down. DIDIA won a pair of Group 1s in Argentina but will face the toughest she has seen to date here.
 
    
 
 RACE #9    $500,000 STAKES
 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:04 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $500,000 NEW ORLEANS CLASSIC GRADE II
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN2-13West Will PowerF Prat
PLACE10-15Rattle N RollB J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW8-52Art CollectorJ Alvarado
WILD CARD9-28Pioneer of MedinaL Saez
 
ALTERNATE 120-11TreasuryC J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 28-17Mr. WirelessD L Parker
    
* EXACTA: 2,3,5/1,2,3,5,8
* TRIFECTA: 2,3,5/2,3,5/1,2,3,5,7,8
 
COMMENTS: WEST WILL POWERs resume hints at a major upgrade in his second race following a layoff. RATTLE N ROLL has powerful late pace and should get a trip he likes with plenty of burn up front. ART COLLECTOR was absolutely brilliant winning his last race with the highest last race speed figure. PIONEER OF MEDINA has two wins with a third and fourth in four at Fair Grounds. The two non wins were versus the likes of EPICENTER.
 
    
 
 RACE #10    $300,000 STAKES
 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:36 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $300,000 MUNIZ MEMORIAL CLASSIC STAKES GRADE II
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN9-25Spooky ChannelJ Rosario
PLACE5-21AtoneL Saez
SHOW3-16Two EmmysJ Graham
WILD CARD6-17Another MysteryF Prat
 
ALTERNATE 15-13Gentle SoulR Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 220-12Rising EmpireF Geroux
    
* EXACTA: 1,5,6/1,3,5,6,7
* TRIFECTA: 1,5,6/1,5,6/1,3,5,6,7
 
COMMENTS: SPOOKY CHANNEL has the best career numbers on grass for this crew and offers good value based on morning line odds. ATONE is working out exceptionally well prepping for this spot including a bullet in last. TWO EMMYS has a strong record at Fair Grounds with four wins along with four seconds and third in 11 races. ANOTHER MYSTERY ran the highest last race speed figure and can win again at his best but come home last at his worst.
 
    
 
 RACE #11    $400,000 STAKES
 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:08 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $400,000 FAIR GROUNDS OAKS GRADE II
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN2-15Hoosier PhillyE Morales
PLACE8-53Pretty MischievousB J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW2-14The Alys LookL Saez
WILD CARD8-11SouthlawnR Gutierrez
 
ALTERNATE 115-12Christian dOroJ Rosario
    
* EXACTA: 5/3
* TRIFECTA: 5/3,4/1,2,3,4
 
COMMENTS: HOOSIER PHILLY was the heavy favorite against PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS last out. She stumbled out of the box and never recovered. HOOSIER PHILLY pounded PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS by more than 5 lengths in their prior matchup. PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS crushed THE ALYS LOOK when they met two back. SOUTHLAWN could compete for third place but would need something special to beat both of the top two.
 
    
 
 RACE #12    $1,000,000 STAKES
 1 3/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:42 PM ET
 
** BONUS COMMENTARY **  $1M LOUISIANA DERBY GRADE II
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN2-12Instant CoffeeL Saez
PLACE6-16KingsbarnsF Prat
SHOW5-14Sun ThunderB J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD12-111Jaces RoadF Geroux
 
ALTERNATE 110-19Tapits ConquestM Franco
ALTERNATE 212-17CagliostroC A Torres
    
* EXACTA: 2,6/2,4,6,7,9,11
* TRIFECTA: 2,6/2,4,6,11/2,4,6,9,11
 
COMMENTS: INSTANT COFFEE is considered one of the top Kentucky Derby contenders right now. He will have a chance to prove it here. KINGSBARN has the best combination of early and late speed in the field through his first two tries. SUN THUNDER will be rolling late with race internals that improved from start to finish in his last. JACES ROAD won his debut and won in his only other first start after a layoff. He runs fresh again today.
 
    
 
 RACE #13    $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:15 PM ET
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN9-29Aztec GemR Gutierrez
PLACE9-27Macho BeanieF Geroux
SHOW6-16Got Me a ChryslerC J Lanerie
WILD CARD5-15Malaki EmpireL Saez
 
ALTERNATE 14-13SteauxlitT Thornton
ALTERNATE 28-113Contraband EarlyC A Torres
    
* EXACTA: 9-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/9 BOX, 5/6/7 BOX
    
 
 RACE #14    $75,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:40 PM ET
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN4-19GwildcatG Melancon
PLACE5-12X ClownJ Graham
SHOW15-17Tambourine StarR Santana Jr.
WILD CARD6-13Coach KennyJ L Rodriguez
 
ALTERNATE 16-18Available StarA Castillo
ALTERNATE 28-111Half AgainD L Parker
    
* EXACTA: 9-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/7/9 BOX, 2/3/7 BOX
    
 
 RACE #15    $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:05 PM ET
 
BEST BET:  #7 LIGHTENING MO
     
PICK ORDERM/LP#HORSE NAMEJOCKEY
     
WIN7-27Lightening MoC J Hernandez
PLACE5-13Pursuit lHarmonieC A Torres
SHOW8-113StarsnmotionL Saez
WILD CARD5-15Custom ComedyJ L Rodriguez
 
ALTERNATE 18-110CalciteC J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 28-14Sweet AlexisV Del-Cid
    
* EXACTA: 7-3 BOX, 3-13 BOX, 13-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/13 BOX, 3/5/13 BOX