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Keeneland Select

Keeneland Select Derby Prep Hotlist - Arkansas Derby | March 30, 2024

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

The $1.5 million Arkansas Derby (G1), Oaklawn Park – Race 12 – The Arkansas Derby drew a field of ten 3-year-olds that will compete on the Kentucky Derby trail for qualifying points of [100-50-25-15-10] that are available to the top five eligible finishers. (2) Timberlake was the winner of his 2024 debut with a win in the Rebel (G2) after a stalking trip. Trainer Brad Cox has had his Kentucky Derby contenders ready to run and even though Timberlake has enough Derby points already to get in the big race he should move forward. (7) Muth has never run worse than second in his five career starts including a win in the American Pharoah (G1) and a second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) as a 2-year-old. He won the seven-furlong San Vicente (G2) in the beginning of January but has not run since then. Muth has 25 vacated Derby points because Bob Baffert is ineligible for the race. (9) Mystik Dan is a bit of a wild card following his eight length victory in the Southwest (G3) on a muddy and sealed track almost two months ago. The track is expected to be dry on Saturday but it is hard to know if he can duplicate that effort. (5) Liberal Arts won the Street Sense (G3) in his final race last year and then came back to finish third in the Southwest in his first start of 2024. Betting strategy Exacta key box: 2 with 4, 5, 7, 9 and 5 with 2, 4, 7, 9.