By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

The $400,000 Risen Star (G2), Fair Grounds

Race 13 – The Risen Star is the first Kentucky Derby prep race this year that offers the increased qualifying points of 50, 20, 15, 10, 5. A fast pace is projected in this nine-furlong stake so the advantage goes to late runners on the long stretch run.  (9) Curly Jack had an excellent 2-year-old campaign in which he accumulated 17 Derby qualifying points in his last three starts – a win in the Iroquois (G3), fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), and second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). He has not run since November,q but he did win at first asking last year and has an impressive work tab at the Fair Grounds. Trainer Tom Amoss has solid stats bringing horses back from long layoffs. (8) Tapit’s Conquest is one of three starters in the Risen Star for Brad Cox who already has five wins in official Derby preps. This horse made his 2023 debut in a Fair Grounds allowance where he missed the win by just a neck and should appreciate the added distance. (13) Victory Formation is one of those Cox winners on Derby trail in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn. His undefeated record is on the line and he has drawn post position 13 in a race where he is likely to face significant pace pressure. (12) Crupi is still a maiden after five starts where was second or third in all of them and where this Todd Pletcher runner faced very strong fields that were won by very talented horses. His race last month was his best with a speed figure that is one of the top three in the field. Betting strategy:  Exacta key box: 9 with 8, 12, 13. Trifecta box:  8, 9, 12, 13.