By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

The $250,000 Withers Stakes (G3), Aqueduct, Race 7, 3:44 p.m. ET

(4) Hit Show is yet another promising 3-year-old from the Brad Cox barn. He was entered in the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park and scratched in favor of the Withers where he avoids racing against any of his stablemates. Favored in all three of his starts he romped to a more than five-length victory in his debut at Keeneland, was fourth in a Churchill allowance and then returned to the winner’s circle in an Oaklawn allowance going a mile. He finds a field that has several horses that prefer to be part of the early going which should give Hit Show an ideal set-up. (1) Artic Arrogance brings his excellent record with first or second-place finishes in all five starts to his third start on the New York road to the Kentucky Derby. He was second in the Remsen (G2) and the Jerome earning eight Derby qualifying points. He gets blinkers on for meet leading trainer Linda Rice which should further enhance his early speed tendencies. Arctic Arrogance won 2 of his first 3 starts against NY-breds. (6) Ninetyprcentmaddie ships up from Parx Racing where this Pennsylvania-bred won his first three starts with two wins against open company and a state-bred stake. Last month he was second in the Parx Juvenile behind a horse that is undefeated in four starts. (3) Jungfrau joins the original Withers field for Bill Mott whose barn is winning important races at an amazing rate including the Pegasus World Cup (G1) and the Holy Bull (G3). Jungfrau is a Juddmonte home-bred that was awarded a maiden victory in his most recent start when he was bumped out in the stretch and still missed by only a nose. The way the Mott barn is winning this guy must be part of your plays.Betting strategy: Exacta key box: 4 with 1, 3, 6. Trifecta box: 1, 3, 4, 6.

The $100,000 El Camino Real Derby, Golden Gate, Race 8, 4:45 p.m. PT

(8) Nullarbor hasn’t raced on a synthetic surface but that hasn’t stopped Baffert from winning this race in  the past. He took a nice step forward last time and continued improvement will make him hard to beat. (2) Chasing the Chaos is on a nice upward swing and should be the main rival. (4) Passarando seems to prefer synthetics and should perk up in this spot. (1) Gilmore is also trained by Baffert and could be a threat from the rail. Betting strategy: 8 to win. Exacta and trifecta box: 1-2-4-8.

The $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3), Tampa Bay Downs – Race 10

The Sam F. Davis drew a full field of a dozen 3-year-olds that will take their chance on the Kentucky Derby trail with qualifying points of 20-8-4-2 available to the top five eligible finishers. (9) Champions Dream began his career in the barn of Danny Gargan where he won his debut at Saratoga with a clear front-end victory. In the Champagne (G1) he caught a sloppy track and finished fifth but came back to win the Nashua (G3) at Aqueduct. He moved to the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse and rallied for second in the Pasco at Tampa missing the win by a neck. Casse gets his horses in shape with prep races and got an excellent one in the Pasco. Tyler Gaffalione comes over from Gulfstream Park to ride. (7) Dubyuhnell has a win on the Derby trail already when he pressed the pace in the Remsen (G2) and beat a game Arctic Arrogance on a sloppy track at Aqueduct. He earned the best speed figure in the Davis field from that victory. It is worth noting that his maiden win was also at the Big A in the slop. (3) Classic Legacy comes from the red hot barn of Bill Mott after an impressive maiden win at Aqueduct. Classic Legacy actually comes from the same owner of Pegasus World Cup winner Art Collector. (11) Litigate will come with good odds for a Todd Pletcher runner that won his debut at Aqueduct and then was second behind Cyclone Mischief in an allowance at Gulfstream. Betting strategy:  Exacta key box: 9 with 1, 3, 7, 11. Trifecta part-wheel: 7, 9 with 1, 2, 3, 7, 9, 10, 11 with 1, 2, 3, 7, 9, 10, 11.