Race 9 at Keeneland | Saturday, April 12 | Post Time 5:16 PM Eastern

Stonestreet Lexington Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $400,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Three Year Olds

 

Analysis, Notes and Top Contenders:

First, it is important to note that BOTH Rolando and Touchy ran in the Lafayette Stakes earlier this week so will not run in this race. Second, although this race awards points on the “Road to the Derby” and sometimes those points may be the difference between a horse having the opportunity to enter the Derby, or not, this year none of the horses are in position to qualify to be in the top 20 which can enter the Derby even if winning this race. On the other hand, the $240,000 winner’s share of the purse is significant, and considering the fact that Preakness will be held in five weeks, on May 17, and that most of the horses which run in the Derby will pass the Preakness, a horse which runs well in this race may be fresh and ready to play spoiler to the winner of the Derby.

Gosger (6) appears to be that kind of horse. He debuted at six furlongs in December and finished second then returned two months more mature in February at a mile and won easily. He improved from an 80 Equibase Speed figure to 94 and should take another big forward in his second start of the year, not to mention he’s bred to adore the two-turn trip he’s trying for the first time as a son of Derby winner Nyquist out of a Tapit mare. Irad Ortiz, Jr. gets on for the first time and rarely rides for trainer Walsh over the past year, but they have won six of 18 (33%) going back to January 1 of 2024, so when Ortiz, Jr’s. agent puts his jockey on a Walsh trainee, it appears to be a winning move much of the time. That 94 Equibase Speed figure for one mile at Gulfstream Park on February 15 is higher (FASTER) than the 88 figure two to one morning line favorite Praetor (7) earned three weeks later, and with Gosger opening at three and one-half to one odds, he would be a great win bet, as well as is the one to beat beast on that last effort.

Trainer Ken McPeek is likely also looking towards the Preakness next month with a pair of runners in Native Runner (5) and Hypnus (8), both who also have run faster than Praetor yet open at odds of 15 to 1 and 6 to 1 respectively. It is notable that although Hypnus finished a well-beaten seventh in the Louisiana Derby in his most recent start, McPeek saddled Senior Investment to win the Lexington Stakes in 2017 off a sixth-place finish in that same race. Hypnus and Native Runner worked together in company on April 7 at Churchill Downs, sizzling a half mile in 47.2, which was the best time of 45 at the distance on the day. Two races before the Louisiana Derby, Hypnus won at this distance impressively with a 92 figure. Native Runner enters the race off two route wins in a row, the most recent on March 18 with Jose Ortiz aboard for the first time and riding back today. That effort earned a 93 figure and continued a three-race pattern of higher figures, so Native Runner can also be expected to run much better than his high odds suggest he will.

Bets:  

Win:

Gosger (6) at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Native Runner (5) or Hypnus (8), whichever is the higher odds, and at least 4 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

The best way to profit on exactas is to take a stand against starting favorite Praetor finishing first or second, so the tickets to accomplish this are as follows:

Gosger (6) over Native Runner (5) and Hypnus (8).

Box Gosger (6), Native Runner (5) and Hypnus (8).