Race 10 at Keeneland | Saturday April 13 | Post Time 5:48 PM Eastern

Stonestreet Lexington Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $400,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Three Year Olds

Win contenders:

Encino (8) was entered in last week’s Blue Grass Stakes but trainer Brad Cox scratched him to go here. Cox also had Just a Touch in the field, who finished second, and who now has enough points (75) to start in the Kentucky Derby. It may have been Cox didn’t want to run both horses, or it may have been he thought Encino had a better chance to earn points here, although the winner of this race only earns 20 points, and with the 20 Encino has currently he will need a horse or two to scratch between now and the Derby to get in as the cut line is now at 45 points.

Nevertheless, it was a smart move for a trainer who has won three of the last four editions of this race. Last year Cox saddled Tawny Port to win off a runner-up effort in the Jeff Ruby Steaks and this year he has Encino coming in off a win in the John Battaglia Stakes before skipping the Jeff Ruby. Encino is on a clearly identifiable pattern for improvement, having earned an 87 Equibase Speed Figure when beaten a neck in his troubled debut, then 91 winning second time out, then 100 in the Battaglia. That 100 figure is the HIGHEST (fastest) figure earned by any horse in the field, and I’m not concerned it was earned on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park nor that Encino has never run on dirt. This is because Tawny Port moved from all-weather to dirt to win this race last year, because Encino is by Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist out of a Bernardini mare, and because Encino put in a four furlong work on the main track at Keeneland on Saturday (the day he would have run in the Blue Grass if not scratched) which was the fourth fastest of 131 on the day. That tells me Encino is going to improve once more, win this race, and hope he gets into the Derby field in three weeks.

Lucky Jeremy (10) should be in the mix at the least in this race, as he finished fifth in the Jeff Ruby when decently regarded at 6 to 1in the 10 horse field. He did so after dueling for the lead for the first three-quarters of a mile, and with the winner drawing off by four lengths at the end, the four and one-quarter length margin Lucky Jeremy was beaten by tells us he was in the thick of the battle for second to the end. Prior to that Lucky Jeremy finished third in the Sunland Derby in New Mexico, which has turned out to be a KEY RACE from which winner Stronghold returned from to win the Santa Anita Derby last weekend and from which runner-up Alotaluck returned to win the Mine That Bird Derby last weekend. Lucky Jeremy won the Riley Allison Derby prior to the Sunland Derby, his first two-turn race and first after thee months off, and he did so from just off the pace and earned a career-best 98 figure. It appears Hades (5), who adds blinkers, will be the one setting the pace, so if jockey Corrales can get Lucky Jeremy right behind him in the early stages, this colt could be right there at the finish.

The Wine Steward (2) and Footprint (4) can be used for second on exacta tickets. Particularly as to The Wine Steward I am taking a stand against him as a win contender and he’s a poor win bet in my opinion as he opens as the 5 to 2 favorite. Although second in the Breeders’ Futurity last fall at Keeneland, with a 97 figure, he returns from six months off and that puts him at a significant disadvantage to others who have run at least twice this year. It is highly doubtful he will run as well in a two turn race at this level without a prep as he did last fall, although he could be in the top three. Footprint was beaten a neck at the wire in the Rushaway Stakes last month at Turfway and improved to a career-best 96 Equibase figure. He had added blinkers for the race and that helped, and he finished third on dirt in two straight before that so has dirt form to run back to.

I previously stated I thought The Wine Steward was vulnerable as a win contender due to coming back in a two-turn race following six months off. Inversely, both Hades (5) and Liberal Arts (9) are coming back from two weeks off, having finished fifth in the Florida Derby and sixth in the Arkansas Derby, respectively, on March 30. Both horses’ connections are hoping to get the 20 points to run in the Derby, but their efforts were so poor, and it is so difficult to return on less than two weeks race off a good effort, let alone poor efforts, I don’t consider them contenders.

Bets:

Win Bets:

Encino (8) should be considered for a win bet at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Lucky Jeremy (10) can be considered for a win bet at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Encino (8) over The Wine Steward (2), Footprint (4) and Lucky Jeremy (10).

Encino (8) and Lucky Jeremy (10) over The Wine Steward (2), Footprint (4), Encino (8) and Lucky Jeremy (10).