Jenny Wiley Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $600,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth on Turf | Fillies and Mares, Four Years Old and Upward

Race 10 at Keeneland | Saturday April 15 | Post Time 5:48 PM Eastern

Win contenders:

With the Moonlight (5) ships in from the U.K. for world-class trainer Charles Appleby, after racing in at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai in February and running two spectacular races. The first was on February 3 when she won in a field of 12 in a Group 2 race and the second was even better when the won the Group 2 Balanchine Stakes by four and one-half lengths in a field of eight. Those group two races are the equivalent of North American grade 1 races so there’s no question of her class, which she proved last summer when nearly winning the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks Invitational in July, then winning the Saratoga Oaks Invitational in August before a near miss in the Lake Placid Stake in September. Having run twice this year, With the Moonlight has an edge over the only horse with lower starting odds, In Italian (2), who hasn’t run since November. Additionally, when Appleby ships to North America he is as close to deadly accurate as any trainer on record, evidenced by a 9-5-2 record over the last five years from 18 starters who ran their last races overseas. Better still, when using his #1 jockey William Buick as he’s doing here, Appleby has won five of seven with one other finishing second. The 118 Equibase Speed Figure With the Moonlight earned in her most recent race was a career best and as a four year old she has more likelihood to improve and run faster than the five year old In Italian, who earned a 120 figure when last seen in November.

In Italian (2) really has no knocks, as her 5-3-1 record in nine career starts attests. She has earned all five wins and two of her three runner-up efforts when racing on the lead from the start and there is absolutely no doubt, absent a stumble as the gates open, she will lead from the rail and try to control the pace. Still, she is giving away some physical condition to With the Moonlight and before the 120 figure earned when second in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf last November before her time off, her other figures ranted from 103 to 109, which if repeated won’t be good enough to hold off With the Moonlight in the late stages if that filly repeats or improves upon her most recent race, which came two months ago as opposed to five months ago for In Italian.

Queen Goddess (3) also cannot be ruled out as a contender to win, because she is a grade 1 winner in a grade 1 race. She captured the American Oaks in December of 2021 and although she hasn’t run at that level since she’s run big in every race on turf until today, winning three times and finishing second in the other. Her most recent win came in her most recent start when victorious in the Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf Invitational at this distance near the end of January with jockey Luis Saez up for the first time and riding back today. Her best efforts have yielded 104, 106, 107 and 109 figures in line with the best races In Italian has run so Queen Goddess is just as probable to win in my opinion but will offer a better return for the risk on win bets.

With the three fillies and mares above likely to go to post as the top three betting choices, we can look to the exacta and trifecta for some value. In that regard, Speak of the Devil (4) is a horse I feel strongly can finish second or third so we will use her on some wagers below. She opens at 10 to 1 odds and she makes her second start after nine months off. She won the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile Stakes last May in her U.S. debut and could be closing strongly late.

Bets:

Win Bets:

I will bet With the Moonlight (5) to win at odds of 3 to 2 or more.

Minimum odds on In Italian (2) are 8 to 5 but she will very likely be lower than those odds.

Minimum odds for a win bet are 3 to 1 on Queen Goddess (3) and therefore I would consider a win bet at those odds or higher.

Exactas:

With the Moonlight (5) over Speak of the Devil (4)

In Italian (2), Queen Goddess (3) and With the Moonlight (5) over Speak of the Devil (4)

Trifectas:

With the Moonlight (5) over In Italian (2), Queen Goddess (3) over Speak of the Devil (4)

In Italian (2), Queen Goddess (3) and With the Moonlight (5) over In Italian (2), Queen Goddess (3) and With the Moonlight (5) over Speak of the Devil (4)