Race 9 at Keeneland | Saturday April 20 | Post Time 5:16 PM Eastern

Ben Ali Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $300,000 | One Mile and Three Sixteenths | Four Year Olds and Upward

Win contenders:

War Campaign (9) is very consistent on dirt where he has a 3-3-3 record in 11 races. He has run on turf and all-weather three times and has never finished in the top three. Better still, War Campaign won at the distance of one mile and one-quarter earlier in his career, and most recently finished second in the similar Grade 3 Essex Stakes at one mile and one-eighth, so this one mile and three-sixteenths distance is right in his wheelhouse. The Essex weas run four weeks ago and although War Campaign was no match for the five-length winner, he rallied for second in fine fashion. Considering he had been of for three months, better is expected, such as when winning the Tinsel Stakes at one mile and one-eighth before the layoff. That effort earned him a career-best 112 Equibase Speed Figure, which he is likely to repeat off the 107 figure effort earned last month. As such, War Campaign is the one to beat in this race.

Laughing Boy (5) has a lower probability to win as compared to War Campaign, but his 15 to 1 starting odds makes up for that in terms of being a horse we may want to bet on. Laughing Boy has finished second in two of his most recent three races at one mile and one-eighth, including last month in the Excelsior Stakes in New York, at odds of 50 to 1. He also has won at Keeneland, at this one mile and three-sixteenth distance, although the win came when a four-year-old in 2022. In the Excelsior, Laughing Boy earned a 102 figure and when winning a stakes last November he earned a 104 figure so he’s still running well as a six year old. Trainer David Jacobson, who wins with nearly 20% of all his dirt route starters (over the past few years) rarely ships a horse from Kentucky from his home base in New York and that is another reason we should consider Laughing Boy, particularly sine he likes to run first or second in the early stages and I this field there are few, if any, other horses with early speed.

Kingsbarns (4) will likely be the betting favorite as he opens at 2 to 1 though he’s no faster than Laughing Boy, with his best Equibase Speed Figure 103 from his most recent start on March 2. That race came after nearly nine months away so he can certainly improve upon it, and as a four-year-old he still could get physically stronger over the course of the year. The reason Kingsbarns is likely to be favored is that 13 months ago he won the Louisiana Derby at this distance. He finished 14^th in the Kentucky Derby in his next race, then missed by a neck in a non-graded stakes in June before going on the sidelines. He’s a talented colt in the top Pletcher barn and should have a say in the outcome but may go to post at lower odds than make sense given the competition in this field.

Honorable mention goes to Time for Trouble (1), who will be included on exacta and trifecta tickets. Winner of 11 races (from 30 starts) in his career, Time for Trouble won at this distance in January, in an allowance race and earning a 103 figure which matches up with Kingsbarns and Laughing Boy. He won at Keeneland one year ago to the day, at one mile and one-eighth, earning a 107 figure. He finished a half-length behind War Campaign in the Essex in his most recent race and can improve in his second start after a little more than two months off so could complete the exacta.

Bets:

Win Bets: War Campaign (9) at 5 to 2 or more.

Laughing Boy (5) at 5 to 1 or more.

I would not hesitate to bet both horses above if their odds are higher than the minimums.

Exactas:

Kingsbarns (4), Laughing Boy (5) and War Campaign (9) over Kingsbarns (4), Laughing Boy (5), War Campaign (9) and Time for Trouble (1).

Trifectas:

Kingsbarns (4), Laughing Boy (5) and War Campaign (9) over Kingsbarns (4), Laughing Boy (5), War Campaign (9) and Time for Trouble (1) over Kingsbarns (4), Laughing Boy (5), War Campaign (9) and Time for Trouble (1).