Race 9 at Churchill Downs | Saturday April 27 | Post Time 10:46 PM Eastern

Roxelana Stakes | Purse $200,000 | Six Furlongs | Fillies and Mares, Four Year Olds and Upward

Win contenders:

Condensation (8) returns from nearly three months off for a rock solid trainer in Chris Hartman. The last time she came back off a layoff was last September, at Churchill Downs, where she rallied from fifth to win going away in a highly rated second level allowance race at this six furlong trip. She ran fast enough to earn a 104 Equibase Speed Figure, the BEST (fastest) figure earned by any horse in the field, and with a lot of “Early Pace” types in this year’s Roxelana field to set up her late kick, Condensation gets top billing to roll by them all for the win.

Last Leaf (2) finished second in this race last year, moving up from fourth to miss by three quarters of a length on the wire. That was her first start after changing trainers to Eddie Kenneally, and although she has not won in nine races since that trainer change, Last Leaf has never finished further back than third either, including in the Grade 3 Winning Colors Stakes last may and in the Dream Supreme Stakes in November. She’s been rested since a second place finish in the Grade 3 Barbara Fritchie Stakes in February and put in a very strong half-mile workout coming into the race which was the sixth fastest of 137 on the day. Last Leaf also should benefit from the fact that at least three of the others in the form of Happy Am I (1), Speedy Traveler (3) and Dazzling Blue (6) have earned all nine of their career wins combined leading from start to finish ONLY. Last year in this race, Last Leaf earned a 101 figure and a repeat of that effort might be good enough to in if Condensation doesn’t run as well as expected.

Zeitlos (5) has finished first or second in eight of 11 races so shows up nearly ever time she runs. One of the exceptions was in her most recent race on March 30 when sixth in a stake at Oaklawn, but she won the Carousel Stakes at Oaklawn at this distance right before that. She also ran one of her best races ever last November at Churchill Downs when rallying from fifth to win with a 97 figure. Now a more mature four year old than last fall, Zeitlos gets reunited with Joel Rosario, who rode her to a win in February the only time he’s been in the saddle, and she too could easily be rolling late for a huge effort.

Positano Sunset (4) and Socially Selective (9) are two more horses that don’t need the lead to win and may be coming on late, so can be used on exacta tickets at the least.

Bets:

Win Bets: I’ll consider Condensation (8) first and bet her at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Next, I’ll consider a win bet on Last Leaf (2) and on Zeitlos (5) at odds of 4 to 1 or more, likely betting the one at the highest odds of the pair.

Exactas:

Last Leaf (2), Zeitlos (5) and Condensation (8) over Last Leaf (2), Zeitlos (5), Condensation (8), Positano Sunset (4) and Socially Selective (9).

I might also consider playing the opposite of that exacta, so that if two of the top three contenders finish first and second, we win twice, and if one of the other two should finish on top, possibly at high odds, we win the exacta as well. That bet is: Last Leaf (2), Zeitlos (5), Condensation (8), Positano Sunset (4) and Socially Selective (9) over Last Leaf (2), Zeitlos (5) and Condensation (8).