Race 8 at Churchill Downs | Saturday April 29 | Post Time 9:39 PM Eastern

Allowance Race | Purse $134,000 | Five and One Half Furlongs on Turf | Fillies and Mares, Three Years Old and Upward

Win contenders:

Madrilena (8) has only run on turf once since importing to the U.S. from her native Argentina last summer, and that race was very good so a repeat of it is certainly good enough to win this similar race. That effort came last September in a turf sprint at Kentucky Downs, in her second start off a layoff, and she rallied into the stretch to lead by two lengths before being caught just near the wire and coming up a neck short. Jockey Corrales was up for that top effort but did not ride her last fall in New York when she was entered for turf but stayed even though the race was moved to dirt, finishing last of 10, nor did Corrales ride in her 2023 comeback last month on the all-weather at Turfway Park. Now back on the grass and making her second start off a layoff just like she was making last September, a repeat of that effort with a pretty strong 94 Equibase Speed Figure could reward us with a profit on win bets as she opens at 6 to 1 odds.

Awesome Treat (6) is the other key contender of note, opening at higher odds than Madrilena, 10 to 1. She’s finished first or second in five of 10 on all-weather but never run on turf. However, her turf breeding is top notch and the races she ran in December, January and February when second at this level or in stakes competition were very good as she was beaten for the win by a half-length, a length, and a neck respectively. Her most recent race on conventional dirt at Keeneland is totally irrelevant as she was never even close to hitting the board in three prior dirt races, now four. When second in the Wishing Well Stakes in January, Awesome Treat earned a career best 97 figure and so a repeat of that effort could easily see her finishing first or second today at high odds.

There are no real knocks on lower odds horses such as Nota Bene (1), who starts at 5 to 2 odds, or on Parents Pride (7), who starts at 2 to 1 odds, but neither are standouts as their combined record is 4-6-1 in 21 starts. Another horse with a shot to be part of the exacta is Atlantic Strike (9), who has won two in a row on all-weather but ran poorly in her only previous try on grass.

If the race should come off the turf and be run on dirt, Mercy Warren (10), who is the only horse entered as main track only (just for dirt) could dominate as she did one race before last when winning at the one lower allowance level by 16 lengths.

Bets:  

Win Bets: Madrilena (8) can be bet to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more, AND, Awesome Treat can be bet to win at odds of 4 to 1 or more. I would not hesitate betting both horses if they are above those minimum odds thresholds.  

Exactas: Awesome Treat (6) and Madrilena (8) over Awesome Treat (6), Madrilena (8), Nota Bene (1), Parents Pride (7) and Atlantic Strike (9).

Optionally, you can consider playing the reverse of the exacta above which is Awesome Treat (6), Madrilena (8), Nota Bene (1), Parents Pride (7) and Atlantic Strike (9) over Awesome Treat (6) and Madrilena (8). That way if Awesome Treat and Madrilena finish first and second, we win both bets.