Race 8 at Keeneland | Saturday April 6 | Post Time 4:48 PM Eastern

Resolute Racing Madison Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $600,000 | Seven Furlongs | Fillies and Mares, Four Years Old and Upward

 

Analysis and top win contenders:

In a very strong edition of the Madison Stakes, in which five of the eight entrants enter off wins and seven of eight have first or second place finishes in similar graded stakes, I’m going to start with a horse likely to be a bit ignored in the betting, Sterling Silver (1), who is as probable to win as horses which will be more favored by bettors. Sterling Silver has won seven of 17 races on conventional dirt around one turn, for nearly $700,000 in career earnings. This is second only to Vahva (8), who won the Grade 2 Raven Run Stakes at Keeneland six months ago, at this distance but restricted to three year olds. Sterling Silver has beaten older foes in three straight dirt sprints, all stakes, although she was disqualified for interference and place second in the first of the three, after drawing off to win easily by four lengths. That was the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom Stakes, where under Javier Castellano (who rides today) Sterling Silver rallied from fourth on the turn. Four weeks later, Sterling Silver won another stakes race, then after a poor and irrelevant try on grass in November, she won four weeks ago even though she had been away from the races for nearly four months. That win on March 9 was at the same seven furlong trip as the Madison, and it bought her record at the distance to four for eight, as well as was the fastest race of her career, evidenced by a 103 Equibase Speed Figure. Likely to run even better second off the layoff, Sterling Silver also gets the benefit of an early pace scenario which suggests Alva Starr (6), Hot and Sultry (3) and Icicles (4) may all want the lead from the start. If that scenario materializes, then Sterling Silver, along with Vahva, may be rallying into the top two positions in the final stages of the race.

Vahva (8) has finished first or second in four of her last five dirt sprint races, three of those stakes, most importantly the Grade 2 Raven Run Stakes last October, at Keeneland, at this distance, earning a stellar 109 Equibase Speed Figure which is the highest last race figure in the field. That race was restricted to three year olds and this will be her first start facing older and first start versus four year olds, as well as her first start in nearly six months, but none of those should be of concern as she’s been working well in the morning every six to eight days and appears capable of running now as well as she did in the fall. Additionally, she gets a great outside post to sit in mid-pack early as the contested early pace scenario unfolds, and under 2023 North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. she could pick up where she left off in the fall, with a graded stakes win at Keeneland.

Even though the two horses above appear to have the bulk of the probability to win, they may not necessarily finish one-two, so there are three others to consider for second on any exacta tickets we play. They are Red Carpet Ready (2), Alva Starr (6) and Big Pond (7). Red Carpet Ready has won five of seven races, including two of two at this distance. One of those was the Eight Belles Stakes last May on Derby weekend. She won a stakes race four weeks ago in her first start versus older and first after eight months off, earning a 98 figure which is short of the 100+ figures Sterling Silver and Vahva earned in their most recent races, but she can improve in her second start off a layoff. Alva Starr has superb early speed and has lead after a few yards in her last five races, including three stakes wins, and when caught near the finish in last year’s Raven Run by Vahva. She should get pressure early from Hot and Sultry and Icicles but if she does not and establishes an easy lead, she could easily hang on for second or third after Sterling Silver and Vahva rally. Big Pond nearly won the Grade 1 La Brea Stake near the end of December then won a non-graded stakes in mid-February. She’s never been worse than second in five sprints and is another who, although needing to improve off a career best 99 last out Equibase Speed figure to compete with Vahva and Sterling Silver, may do just that.

Bets:  

Win: Considering I think if this race was run 100 times, between Sterling Silver (1) and Vahva (8), one of them would win about two-thirds of the time (33%), minimum odds for a win bet on either of those two are 2 to 1.

Exactas:

Sterling Silver (1) and Vahva (8) over Sterling Silver (1), Red Carpet Ready (2), Alva Starr (6), Big Pond (7) and Vahva (8).