Race 9 at Keeneland | Saturday April 8 | Post Time 5:15 PM Eastern

Toyota Blue Grass Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $1 Million | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds

I’ll start by saying there are many horses which BADLY need “Road to the Derby” points to crack the top 20 (currently at 34 points) so even a horse which finishes third or fourth has a shot to earn enough points to start in the Kentucky Derby. This should be taken into account when handicapping this race. 

Win contenders:

I am going to start with Classic Car Wash (4), not because he’s superior to the three likely public choices in Tapit Trice, Verifying and Raise Cain, but because it is very likely he will offer the highest odds of the quartet. The colt continues to improve with every start, having raised his Equibase Speed Figures in four straight races, from 77, to 80, to 86 and then to 95. That last effort came when finishing second of 12 to Tapit Trice in the Tampa Bay Derby four weeks ago. In that race, Classic Car Wash began in ninth in the field of 12, advanced to fourth with a quarter mile to run, was third with an eighth of a mile to run, then made the lead and was accelerating before Tapit Trice showed his late kick to go by in the final sixteenth of a mile. I particularly like it when horses lead late in a race even if beaten by another horse or two because it shows they understand what their task is and they can respond to the jockey’s cues to accelerate when needed. Now getting the services of Javier Castellano and with that last race 95 figure just three points below the top speed figure (98, by Tapit Trice) in the field, Classic Car Wash only has a slightly lesser probability than the top betting choice, but will offer about four times the return and that is why he is my top choice to win this year’s Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.

Tapit Trice (1) started showing excellent physical ability and mental toughness in the second start of his career last December when battling head-and-head in the final eighth of a mile, prevailing by a neck. The 96 figure earned at the time was very strong for a two year old in December, comparable to the 98 figure Blazing Sevens earned winning the Champagne Stakes in October. In his third career start Tapit Trice pulled off to an eight length win with the same 96 figure, then when sent to post as the prohibitive betting choice in the Tampa Bay Derby, he did not disappoint. Starting out 11^th of 12 in that race, Tapit Trice showed little early speed until about three-sixteenths of a mile to run when reminded to start running harder by jockey Luis Saez. Continually passing horses, the colt went from four and one-half lengths back with an eighth of a mile to go to draw off by two lengths, using big strides to gobble up the ground. Horses have won the Blue Grass Stakes coming from far back and certainly the field high last race 98 figure earned in the Tampa Bay Derby can be improved upon in this race. On the other hand, there may be few horses interested in leading early in this race and the pace may be slower than average, which has potential to hamper the same kind of late kick Tapit Trice showed in his most recent race.

Verifying (3) was highly regarded in the Rebel Stakes near the end of February, entering the gate as the 3 to 2 betting choice. This was because prior to that, in his three year old debut in January, he had won easily by five lengths and earned an extremely strong 102 figure. Last fall Verifying proved to fit with the best two year olds when making the lead late in the Champagne Stakes before being passed by winner Blazing Sevens, but he (as well as Blazing Sevens) did not follow through on that promise when finishing sixth of 10 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Allowed to mature over the winter, Verifying returned to win in his three year old debut, with that 102 figure effort before his fourth place Rebel effort. Although disappointing, the poor quality of that effort might be discounted in favor of his previous top effort. This is because he wasn’t as aggressively ridden in the Rebel as he had been previously and never really established a good position, particularly in the critical early stages of the stretch run when he was in traffic and continued to weave in and out behind other horses to find a clear path to run. With a jockey change to Tyler Gaffalione, this half-brother to champion Midnight Bisou ($7.4 million in earnings) may be able to get the lead shortly after the start and lead all the way to redeem himself in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.

Raise Cain (10) rounds out the quartet of horses I feel have most of the probability to win this race between them. He burst on the scene last month in the Gotham Stakes with an upset win at 23 to 1 odds. He had run well when second at the same odds two races prior to that in the Gun Runner Stakes, but after a non-threating fifth in another stakes it appeared to bettors he was not improving. That was not to be the case, as Raise Cain showed a lot of moxie as he rallied from seventh with a quarter mile to go, got completely stopped in traffic, then re-accelerated to forge to the front and draw off with a 91 figure. Since that race, Raise Cain has been working very nicely at Keeneland in the morning and gets the services of Joel Rosario, so can be expected once again to be passing many, if not all, in the stretch run of this race. 

Bets:

With starting odds of 12 to 1, Classic Car Wash (4) offers exceptional return potential for the risk and can be considered for a win bet at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Among the other three win contenders, Raise Cain (10) has starting odds of 9 to 2 and can also be considered for a win bet, at around 7 to 2 odds.

Exotic wagers:

Not only do I feel pretty strongly Classic Car Wash (4) should be second or third if he doesn’t win, but his odds help the payoffs of any exactas or trifectas we play as compared to the lower odds of the other three contenders. Therefore I want to “key” Classic Car Wash on exacta and trifecta tickets as follows:

Exactas:

Classic Car Wash (4) over Tapit Trice (1), Verifying (3), Raise Cain (10)

Tapit Trice (1), Verifying (3), Raise Cain (10) over Classic Car Wash (4)

Trifectas: ($0.50 minimum)

Classic Car Wash (4) over Tapit Trice (1), Verifying (3), Raise Cain (10) over Tapit Trice (1), Verifying (3), Raise Cain (10)

Tapit Trice (1), Verifying (3), Raise Cain (10) over Classic Car Wash (4) over Tapit Trice (1), Verifying (3), Raise Cain (10)

Tapit Trice (1), Verifying (3), Raise Cain (10) over Tapit Trice (1), Verifying (3), Raise Cain (10) over Classic Car Wash (4)