Race 7 at Keeneland | Tuesday, April 8 | Post Time 4:14 PM Eastern

Commonwealth Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $350,000 | Seven Furlongs | Four Year Olds and Upward

 

Top Contenders:

Whatchatalkinabout (11) is a lightly raced four-year-old about to break into the big leagues in his first graded stakes try. He debuted in a big way back two years ago next month to win, then two races later won a stakes race but then went on the sidelines for a year, returning last October. After two very good races where he finished second, Whatchatalkinabout ran the best race of his career, and best race by ANY horses in this 12-horse field, dominating by eight lengths and earning a 117 Equibase Speed Figure which is not only good enough to win this grade 3 stakes race, but good enough to win a grade one stakes race. He has been off for nearly three months since that January 16 effort, but he’s been in steady training for the past month here at Keeneland, with three straight fast five-furlong workouts over the track. It’s a big sign that one of the top jockeys in the country, Irad Ortiz, Jr. (and his agent) take the mount for high percentage trainer Wesley Ward (a former jockey himself) and from a good outside post, Whatchatalkinabout can stalk in second or third in the opening stages and pick up where he left off in January with a win.

Hoist the Gold (6) is no slouch, as he’s approaching the $1.5 million mark in career earnings. He won the Grade 2 Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland in the fall of 2023, and he finished second, beaten a neck, in the 2023 Commonwealth Stakes. Not only is he proven at the level and over the track, but Hoist the Gold enters the race off a strong win in mid-February following eight months off. He earned a 105 Equibase Speed Figure in that race and should improve markedly in his second start off the layoff, perhaps back to the 117-figure effort (tied with Whatchatalkinabout for the best in the field) he put forth winning the Grade 2 Cigar Mile Handicap in December, 2023. Jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. was aboard Hoist the Gold for his last win and rides back, which is another reason to think this sensational sprinter can run well enough to get his picture taken in the winner’s circle if he improves off that last effort.

Extra Anejo (10) won in the fall of 2022 in his career debut, at Keeneland and at this seven-furlong distance. Winning first time out in a seven-furlong race is very difficult, and not only did he win but he dominated by nearly 10 lengths with a 99 figure, very strong for a two-year-old. He has won three of five one-turn races since then and one of those efforts may be representative of what Extra Anejo can do today. That race was last May, when coming back from 10 months off, the horse won easily at seven furlongs with a 111 Equibase Speed Figure. Since he’s a perfect two-for-two at this distance and since both wins came off layoffs, the fact he’s returning from nearly seven months off for this race is of no concern. As such, Extra Anejo rounds out a trio that appear to have the bulk of the probability to win.

That being said, Here Mi Song (8) and Montalcino (2) can be considered contenders as well, especially for exacta tickets we play involving this race. Here Mi Song WON the 2023 Commonwealth and was scratched at the gate last year in this race. He won a stakes race last July with a 107 figure and put in a sizzling half mile workout coming into this race so may add to his fine record of finishing first or second in 15 of 28 races, including in four of five at Keeneland. Montalcino could be a perfect four-for-four in his career if not for a tough loss by a head in November. That effort earned a strong 111-figure, and he returned to win easily on February 22 following three months off so has room to improve second off the layoff.

Bets:  

Win: Considering I feel strongly that if Whatchatalkinabout (11) repeats his most recent race he’s the one to beat, I would consider him for a win bet at odds of 8 to 5 or higher.

Next, I would consider win bets on Hoist the Gold (6) at odds of 3 to 1 or more, and on Extra Anejo (10) at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.

Exactas:

Whatchatalkinabout (11), Hoist the Gold (6) and Extra Anejo (10) over Whatchatalkinabout (11), Hoist the Gold (6), Extra Anejo (10), Here Mi Song (8) and Montalcino (2).

Whatchatalkinabout (11), Hoist the Gold (6), Extra Anejo (10), Here Mi Song (8) and Montalcino (2) over Whatchatalkinabout (11), Hoist the Gold (6) and Extra Anejo (10).

By playing both sets of exactas above, we will win both bets if any two of the top three contenders finishes first and second, and we have opportunity for profit no matter what in this 12-horse field.