Race 10 at Colonial Downs | Saturday August 12 | Post Time 6:40 PM Eastern

Arlington Million | Purse $1 Million | One Mile and one-quarter on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward

 

Eliminating non-contenders:

Before discussing the top contenders, I want to discuss why a number of horses with overall good records and hundreds of thousands of dollars won in their careers have pretty low probability to win this race. Let’s start with Rockemperor (5), one of two trained by Chad Brown (the other is Adhamo), who has banked $1.1 million. In spite of having won the Turf Classic Invitational in the fall of 2022 and the Bowling Green Stakes in July of 2022 he has not been competitive in five races since and interestingly enough, was scratched out of this year’s Bowling Green, which appears to have been an easier spot than the Arlington Million. Adhamo (9) has won just once in six races since importing to the United States in the winter of 2022, and he has been away since a poor effort last October when sixth of seven in the Turf Classic Invitational. Although Brown has a good record with horses returning off long layoffs, there’s not a case to be made this horse can return to grade 1 winning form. Santin (11) won this race last year as one of the betting favorites (2 to 1) but has not been competitive since then in six races, never closer than fourth or nearer than three lengths from the winner. Many of the others have been uncompetitive recently and cases cannot be made why their recent form can be reversed.

Top contenders:

After eliminating a number of horses as contenders, we’re left with just a few, that group led by Atone (4). This past January, following two and one-half months off and a win last November, Atone proved to be a top turf runner when rallying from sixth to win the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational, earning a 109 Equibase Speed Figure. Nearly eight weeks later in the Muniz Memorial Classic, and sent to post as the prohibitive favorite, Atone finished last of nine. When returning two months later in the Dinner Party Stakes, Atone led from the start, just as he had in his victory last November, but this time he faded to fifth. However, he has beaten a total of one length and was very game all the way to the finish. For the Arlington Million, Atone gets a jockey change to Kendrick Carmouche, who has ridden the horse just one time previously and that was in his wire-to-wire win last November. With none of the three horses with gate positions inside Atone in the Million previously shown to want to be in front early in a race, Carmouche can easily put Atone on the lead from the start from where he can control the tempo and duplicate his big effort last fall. However, in the case another horse wants the lead more than Atone does, Carmouche can get Atone to relax as he did when fifth in the early stages of the Pegasus, with the same winning result.

Catnip (8) is one of a few fairly lightly raced four year olds in this year’s Million field, who may be able to step up to the task. He has won four of eight career races, all on grass, and has improved as expected during his spring campaign. After winning in April at the first allowance condition, Catnip improved markedly in May to earn a then career-best 102 Equibase Speed figure, then to 106 winning the Monmouth Stakes. Moved up to the Grade 1 level and facing some multiple stakes winners in the United Nations Stakes last month, Catnip was not disgraced when making the lead in the stretch after stalking in second, then being passed by multiple stakes winner Therapist. Cutting back from that mile and three-eighths trip to the mile and one-quarter of the Arlington Million, Catnip has a big shot to make the lead after stalking whichever horse is in front in the stretch and perhaps hang on this time.

Master Piece (6) has won or placed in nearly half of his 22 career start on grass, 10 to be exact, and continues to run competitively every time he steps foot on the track. Returning from nearly four months off for his first start of 2023 in the Pegasus (won by Atone), Master Piece closed strongly but too late, moving from last of 12 to be beaten just three lengths at the finish. Following that came a third place effort with a 110 figure in the Mac Diarmida Stakes and another third place effort in the Pan American Stakes. Given three months off and changing trainers, it appears the much shorter mile and one-sixteenth race Master Piece ran in on July 4 was a prep for this much longer race. Having won the Eddie Read Stakes last summer with a 111 figure which would be very competitive if repeated, it must be noted the new trainer for Master Piece is Dick Dutrow, who recently returned to training after a long suspension. Dutrow proved he hasn’t lost his ability to get horses to run big as he saddled White Abarrio to win the Whitney Stakes last weekend in an upset, and that’s another reason to take Master Piece (CHI) very seriously in this situation.

Set Piece (3) is a horse I will use on exacta tickets in the second position. Although he has won 12 of 28 races, seven of 22 on turf, for the past year or so Set Piece has mostly rallied way too late to win, and he’s never really fared well in grade 1 stakes, except for a second place finish in the 2021 Fourstardave Handicap, where, as usual, he rallied from last to get second while not threatening to win. In his most recent start on July 1, Set Piece rallied from last of 10 to get third. So while he has a big late kick, it usually falls short but that’s exactly the reason he can’t be left off second position on exacta tickets.

Bets:

Consider win bets on one or more of the win contenders at these odds:

Atone (4) at 2 to 1 or more

Catnip (8) at odds of 3 to 1 or more

Master Piece (6) at odds of 4 to 1 or more

Note: If you wager on more than one of the contenders to win, you can structure your bets to win the same amount. This is called “dutching.” For example, if Atone is 3 to 1 and Catnip is 6 to 1 and if you were betting $50 total you would be $32 on Atone for a return of $128 and $18 on Catnip for a return of $126.

Exactas: Atone (4), Master Piece (6), Catnip (8) over Set Piece (3), Atone (4), Master Piece (6) and Catnip (8)