Race 9 at Saratoga | Saturday August 17 | Post Time 5:04 PM Eastern

Lake Placid Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $200,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth on Turf | Fillies, Three Years Old

 

Analysis and win contenders:

Dynamic Pricing (10) is one of three horses entered from the barn of top trainer Chad Brown, the other two being Grayosh (2) and Spaliday (5). Among the trio, Dynamic Pricing appears the most likely to run well, particularly as she gets a jockey change back to Irad Ortiz, Jr., who rode her just once previously, to victory in the identical Grade 2 Edgewood Stakes in May one before last. In the Edgewood, Dynamic Pricing rallied from fifth with an eighth of a mile to go and drove past the horses in front of her in the last part of the race, earning a field high tying 108 Equibase Speed Figure. The ONLY other horse in the field to have run that fast is She Feels Pretty (7), who opens at 2 to 1 compared to 6 to 1 starting odds for Dynamic Pricing. Off the Edgewood, Dynamic Pricing didn’t run a step in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks Invitational under Prat, running sixth for half the race and seventh for the other half. Then again, winner Cinderella’s Dream won the Saratoga Derby one month later while fourth place finisher Pin Up Betty missed by inches in the Pucker Up Stakes last weekend while dropping in class the same as Dynamic Pricing. Cutting back from that longer one and three-sixteenths mile trip to the distance of the Edgewood, as well as being reunited with Ortiz, Jr., Dynamic Pricing can rebound to grate 2 stakes winning form.

She Feels Pretty (7) is no slouch, having won three of five and finishing third in the other two when beaten under a length in blanket finishes. She too cuts back in distance and won the Hilltop Stakes at a mile prior to her third-place finish in the Belmont Derby, where she earned a career-best 108 figure which ties with Dynamic Pricing for the best in the field.

Beautiful Love (11) makes her north American debut for the potent Appleby barn, which continues to win big races with European shippers like this one. Over the last five years, Appleby has saddled 17 winners from 49 races (34%), with another 12 finishing second. Beautiful Love ran the best race of her career when last seen, at a mile on turf over a left-handed course like this one, with a 104 figure. Considering that effort came in February and she’s now six months older and more mature, that effort projects as good as the 108 figure best efforts Dynamic Pricing and She Feels Pretty have put forth to date, so this gal rounds out a trio which as a group has the bulk of the probability to win the race.

However, Les Reys (6) also makes her north American debut and she has good credentials. Racing in France for her seven-race career to date, Les Reys won three of seven and finished second in the other, beating MALES in May then winning nicely in June before being sold to U.S. interests and joining the top Clement barn. Clement doesn’t have the success Appleby does with these types, but nevertheless his record of 2-2-3 with 10 foreign imports in graded stakes is decent enough. Both wins came with Rosario in the saddle, who rides Les Reys today, and although her 100 and 98 figures are lower than the top three contenders, she too could run a career-best race in her first start in two and one-half months.

Win Bets:

We have to start with Dynamic Pricing (10), whose 6 to 1 starting odds are great for a Brown/Ortiz Jr. horse. I’d bet her at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

She Feels Pretty (7) has the same minimum odds to consider for a win bet but as she opens at 2 to 1 we will have to make money from her success on exacta tickets.

Beautiful Love (4) opens at 4 to 1 and I would consider her at 7 to 2 or more. Les Reys (6) opens at 10 to 1 and any odds above 5 to 1 are worth considering a win bet.

Exactas:

Box Dynamic Pricing (10) and She Feels Pretty (7)

Box Dynamic Pricing (10), She Feels Pretty (7) and Beautiful Love (11)

Box Dynamic Pricing (10), She Feels Pretty (7), Beautiful Love (11) and Les Reys (6)