Race 9 at Saratoga | Saturday August 19 | Post Time 5:45 PM Eastern

Alabama Stakes presented by Keeneland Sales | Purse $600,000 | One Mile and one-quarter | Fillies, Three Years Old

Top contenders:

Randomized (8) is one of a pair from the strong Chad Brown barn, the other being Fireline (5), who appears overmatched off a non-threatening fourth in the Delaware Oaks last month. On the other hand, Randomized just won the Wilton Stakes at Saratoga at a mile and is perfectly set up for the stretch out to a mile and one-quarter in her third start off a layoff. She controlled the tempo from start to finish in the Wilton, just as she did two races earlier when earning her first win in her second career start, and following nine months off. Joel Rosario gets on and although known as a jockey who does well with strong finishers, has proven many times to be capable of getting a horse to relax on the lead and ration their speed in order to find what’s needed in the stretch to hold off all comers. As a daughter of Nyquist (a Kentucky Derby winner) out of an Elusive Quality mare, there’s little doubt this 10 furlong trip is well within her reach, and as it appears very likely no other horse will want the lead in the first few strides, Randomized looks very capable of winning, particularly since the 101 Equibase Speed Figure earned winning the Wilton is the same as the 101 figure Wet Paint (2) and Sacred Wish (2) earned when finishing first and second (separated by a head) in the Grade 1 CCA Oaks last month.

Sacred Wish (1) and Wet Paint (2) were eight lengths clear of the third horse in the CCA Oaks, and although Sacred Wish had opening up by a couple of lengths mid-stretch only to be beaten a neck on the wire, their odds disparity here is out of line, with Wet Paint opening at 2 to 1 and Sacred Wish at 8 to 1. Sacred Wish is on a three race pattern of improving figures, from 86 two back to 100 last out, and gets the rail and Hall-of-Fame jockey John Velazquez so has no knocks. There’s no knocks against Wet Paint either except she will be much lower odds than Sacred Wish, and it must be noted that before she won the CCA Oaks, Wet Paint disappointed as the odds-on favorite when second in the Monomoy Girl Stakes and similarly when fourth at the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks.

Bets:

Win: We should consider a win bet on Randomized (8) to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more given her “early” pace advantage. Additionally, a win bet may be warranted on Sacred Wish (1) at odds of 3 to 1 or more as she has the same probability to win as much lower odd

Exacta: Box Randomized (8), Sacred Wish (1) and Wet Paint (2)