Race 13 at Saratoga | Saturday August 24 | Post Time 6:10 PM Eastern

Travers Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $1.25 Million | One Mile and One Quarter| Three Year Olds

 

Analysis and win contenders:

The way this race will be run in the early stages will almost certainly decide who may, or may not, be in contention to win the race in the final eighth of a mile. Five of the eight horses might be found on the lead in the opening quarter mile, or just off the pace. Those that are wide going around the first turn or expend too much energy trying to get the lead may be found wanting in the final stages. Considering two of those, Dornoch (7) and Fierceness (8), draw the outside two spots in the gate, what their jockeys decide to do in the first portion of the race may be significant in determining whether either can win given that their most recent overall Equibase Speed Figures of 107 and 108, respectively. Even if repeated, these figures offer no superior margin against four other horses’ best recent figures, Thorpedo Anna (1) (105), Sierra Leone (2) (106), Unmatched Wisdom (3) (107) and Corporate Power (4) (105).

Considering Unmatched Wisdom (3) won the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga five weeks ago leading from start to finish, I believe jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. will try to get the lead in the opening strides. Thorpedo Anna (1) was second for the first mile when winning both the Acorn Stakes and Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga and can take up second position easily. That forces Dornoch (7) and Fierceness (8) either to be three or four paths wide going into the first turn or to use a lot of energy trying to get in front of Unmatched Wisdom and Thorpedo Anna before the first turn. On the other hand, if either Fierceness or Dornoch do get the lead before the first turn, not only might that have taxed them such that they will be susceptible to being passed in the stretch, but that leaves Thorpedo Anna and Unmatched Wisdom in second and third or third and fourth. That scenario benefits both Unmatched Wisdom and Thorpedo Anna. Unmatched Wisdom won after stalking in second early one race before the Curlin, and Thorpedo Anna has proven very successful coming from as far back as fourth after a quarter mile to win.

As it appears both Thorpedo Anna and Unmatched Wisdom have an edge based on their positions in the gate and the likely early pace scenarios, this should shape up as a fantastic race and they are the two horses with a best chance to win in my opinion. Thorpedo Anna is on a pattern of improving Equibase Speed figures, having gone from 94 winning the Kentucky Oaks, to 99 winning the Acorn, to 105 in the CCA Oaks, and since the latter pair of races were at Saratoga she gets slight preference. Unmatched Wisdom is also on an improving pattern, from 92 in his debut in May, to 100 winning in June to 107 when victorious in the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga.

The ”X” factor is Corporate Power (4), who may be ignored in the wagering in spite of missing by one length at the end in the Curlin behind Unmatched Wisdom. He too is on a pattern for improvement, going from a 94 figure three races back to 103 winning the Sir Barton Stakes in May to 105 in the Curlin. Being as his effort in the Curlin came off a two-month layoff, Corporate Power may improve again. Additionally, it must be noted his sire Curlin leads all sires of horses in this race in terms of graded stakes winners at 10 furlongs on dirt, having eight different horses which have won similar races (from 31 horses). Trainer Shug McGaughey won the 2019 Travers with Code of Honor, who won the Dwyer Stakes one month earlier, with the same 105 speed figure Corporate Power earned in his most recent race. I will strongly keep this in mind when considering bets involving this race because the pattern is impossible to ignore.

About the rest: Dornoch (7) has shown a lot of fight in his last two races, the Belmont and Haskell, where he led at one or more points in the race and then was second with an eighth of a mile to go. In each instance, Dornoch found something extra both physically and mentally to prevail, and certainly the 106 and 107 figures earned, respectively, fit with the best in here if repeated. There’s still a question of where he may be in the opening furlongs of this year’s Travers. He could be third, fourth of fifth going into the first turn or around the turn, which is unfamiliar to him, or he could be vying for the lead and expending a lot of energy going in the early stages. Both scenarios aren’t conducive to the kind of efforts he put forth in the Belmont or Haskell, so it may be difficult for him to win his third straight race.

Sierra Leone (2) will likely be last, or second to last (behind Honor Marie) in the early stages and make his usual later run. However, as shown in the Kentucky Derby (second), Belmont (third) and Jim Dandy (second) he usually has his work cut out for him, although it must be noted the 109-figure earned in the Derby is good enough to win if repeated and if none of the others improves to that level. Otherwise, there’s no doubt Sierra Leone can get up for second or third in the late stages once more.

Fierceness (8) got back into winning form with a very sharp effort in the Jim Dandy with a 108 figure, almost as good as the 110-figure earned winning the Florida Derby this past spring. However, as mentioned above, I just don’t see a pace scenario which favors a repeat of either of those efforts in this field.

Batten Down (5) was no match for Fierceness and Sierra Leone in the Jim Dandy as he finished five and three-quarters behind the latter. His best figure is 98 and it would take significant improvement to run as well as the top contenders in this field. Honor Marie (6) won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November with a 98 figure and earned the same figure when a well-beaten fourth in the Belmont Stakes.

Win Bets:

Thorpedo Anna (1) at odds of 2 to 1 or more

Corporate Power (4) at odds of 6 to 1 or more.

Unmatched Wisdom (3) at odds of 5 to 1 or more.

If the odds are high enough, there is every reason to bet two, or even all three of the horses above to win.

Also, considering the 15 to 1 starting odds on Corporate Power, a place bet or exacta placing him in second may be in order, which would be ALL over Corporate Power.

Exactas:

Thorpedo Anna (1) over Sierra Leone (2), Unmatched Wisdom (3), Corporate Power (4).

Thorpedo Anna (1), Unmatched Wisdom (3) and Corporate Power (4) over Thorpedo Anna (1), Sierra Leone (2), Unmatched Wisdom (3), Corporate Power (4), Dornoch (7) and Fierceness (8).