Buy TicketsRace 11 at Saratoga | Saturday August 3 | Post Time 5:42 PM Eastern
Whitney Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $1 Million | One Mile and One Eighth | Four Year Olds and Upward
Analysis and win contenders:
Simply put, if the race and effort Arthur’s Ride (11) put forth in his most recent race on June 7 is believable, he can post the upset in this year’s Whitney Stakes. I think it is believable, considering in four of his other five races to date, Arthur’s Ride won or finished second, and he’s three for three on fast tracks at a mile or more on dirt in his career. As with many of the four-year-olds in this year’s Whitney field, Arthur’s Ride may not have run his fastest race, and that is saying something considering last effort earned a 115 Equibase Speed Figure which is the highest last race figure among any horse in the race. Put in perspective, that effort was faster than National Treasure’s (3) win one day later in the Metropolitan Handicap, which earned a 110 figure.
Arthur’s Ride (11) had been away from the races from February 2023 until March of this year, yet won as if he had never been away, earning a 96 figure. After a disappointing ninth of 12 finish two months later, Arthur’s Ride ran fast from start to finish in his win at Saratoga in June, eased up in the last 110 yards after achieving an insurmountable margin, then coasting to a 12 and three-quarter length win. That was at the distance of one mile and one-quarter, so running the same, or better, at this mile and one-eighth distance is of no concern. To show he’s still in top shape, Arthur’s Ride put in a half-mile drill a few days ago which was the fourth best of 57 at the distance on the day.
Another interesting note about Arthur’s Ride is last year when Bright Future (9) won the Jockey Club Gold Cup, he was a four-year-old making his seventh career start, which is the same as Arthur’s Ride in this year’s Whitney. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott amazingly has never won this race although his starters have won eight of 35 grade 1 dirt route stakes in the past three years and so Arthur’s Ride gives Mott the chance to add the Whitney Stakes to his awesome resume.
Bright Future (9), one of three entrants from the potent barn of Todd Pletcher (the other two being Crupi (7) and Charge It (12)), has won five of nine career starts. He really peaked at this time last year in his sixth and seventh career starts last summer at Saratoga, winning a nine-furlong race in July then taking the Jockey Club Gold Cup with a career-best 112 figure. Two months later in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Bright Future found himself too far back in the early stages when 10th of 12 but managed to pass half the field and was beaten just under four lengths at the end with a 111 figure. Rested until June and likely with this race in mind, Pletcher entered Bright Future in the Salvatore Mile Stakes, where he rallied from sixth to win going away with a 104 figure, he is highly likely to improve upon in his second start off a long layoff and back over the track where he has won both of his starts.
National Treasure (3) is another horse whose trainer, Bob Baffert, sought to run over the track to set him up for his best in this race. Returning from three and one-half months off in the Metropolitan Handicap in June, National Treasure had to battle for early supremacy in the opening quarter mile but then got into a steady stride and drew off by more than six lengths, earning a 110 figure he is likely to improve upon second off the longer layoff. Last summer, National Treasure ran poorly when fifth in the Travers Stakes, but in his 2024 debut he won the Pegasus World Cup Invitational at the distance of the Whitney and with a 114-figure good enough to possibly win this race if repeated. Although National Treasure earned his first two wins, including in the 2023 Preakness, leading from start to finish, he demonstrated the ability to relax off the pace when second in the early stages of the Pegasus, and those may be the tactics employed in this year’s Whitney if Junior Alvarado and Arthur’s Ride go for the front from the start which proved so successful in his most recent win.
There are a number of other really good horses in the field. One of those is First Mission (5), who disappointed badly as the odds-on favorite on June 29 in the similar Stephen Foster Stakes but won the Alysheba Stakes and Essex Stakes back-to-back prior to that, both with 115 figure efforts which would make him competitive in the Whitney if repeated. Skippylongstocking (10) earned a 114-figure winning the Oaklawn Handicap at the distance of the Whitney in April but also ran poorly in the Foster when finishing third with no excuse although it must be noted he only missed second by a head after fading from second to fourth on the far turn. Post Time (1) has only finished further back than second one time in 11 races and shows up every time he runs, with his best efforts earning 116 figures in January and February of this year. Then there’s Warrior Johny (4), likely to go to post at high odds. Although he’s winless in three stakes tries, he sports a two-for-three record at Saratoga, with both wins coming at this nine-furlong trip, the most recent just three weeks ago with a 113 figure.
Win Bets:
Consider Arthur’s Ride (11) and Bright Future (9) at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Box National Treasure (3), Bright Future (9) and Arthur’s Ride (11)
National Treasure (3), Bright Future (9) and Arthur’s Ride (11) over Post Time (1), National Treasure (3), Warrior Johny (4), First Mission (5), Bright Future (9), Skippylongstocking (10) and Arthur’s Ride (11).
Optionally, Post Time (1), National Treasure (3), Warrior Johny (4), First Mission (5), Bright Future (9), Skippylongstocking (10) and Arthur’s Ride (11) over National Treasure (3), Bright Future (9) and Arthur’s Ride (11).