Race 11 at Saratoga | Saturday August 31 | Post Time 5:41 PM Eastern

Spinaway Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $300,000 | Seven Furlongs | Fillies, Two Years Old

 

Analysis and win contenders:

I maintain a very small “horses to watch list” and most of those horses are ones who experienced traffic trouble in a race that I believe would have run better and may offer value in their next race. It is not often at all when a horse which won a race makes my list, because usually horses which won their most recent races will be low odds in their next starts. However, where two-year-olds are concerned, that is not always the case since some of them move up in class. Such is the case with Pondering (7), who, like six other fillies in this 11-horse field, just won for the first time in her most recent race. Pondering made the list because of the way she ran that race, where she relaxed three wide in the early stages then easily moved to the lead and was just galloping in the lane as she won handily. There is a ton of upside to this well-bred filly out of the stakes winning mare Always Thinking. The only foal of the dam, a three-year-old, just won in his second career start and at this seven-furlong trip, and jockey Machado takes off a day at Kentucky Downs to come to New York to ride.

The Queens M G (8) has won two stakes in a row at Saratoga in impressive fashion, including the slightly shorter (six and one-half furlong) Adirondack Stakes four weeks ago. She has no knocks and even though 5 to 2 last time out she may be closer to her 7 to 2 starting odds given the depth of this field.

Strong Slate (9) led from start to finish to win at Saratoga last time out on July 11, Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle then as now. She was the even money favorite then and opens at 12 to 1, and those double-digit odds are out of line because with an outside post (instead of the rail as she drew last out), Ortiz, Jr. can position her off the pace and make a nice late run for a piece at the least.

Quietside (11) is another filly with a shot but opens at 3 to 1, likely too low odds to consider for a win bet versus Pondering (6 to 1) and Strong Slate (12 to 1). She also won her only start and did so in impressive fashion, but the 81 Equibase Speed Figure is lower than the 94 Strong Slate earned in her recent win and lower than the 86 figure The Queens M G earned winning the Adirondack. If you’re wondering, Pondering earned a 75 figure in her win, but I think she’s going to improve considerably.

Last, I think we all might consider at least a small win bet on Reliable Source (3) anywhere near her 20 to 1 starting odds. From the top barn of Steve Asmussen, and with his #1 rider Ricardo Santana taking the call, this filly also won at six and one-half furlongs here at Saratoga in her most recent race. The 70 figure is low, but she won after battling head and head for the lead for the first half-mile, then still had more than enough energy to draw off by a two and one-half lengths. Asmussen is no dummy when it comes to placing his horses, and he’s run well with longshots before in these kinds of races, winning the 2021 Hopeful Stakes with Gunite at odds of 11 to 1, also with Santana in the saddle.

Win Bets:

Pondering (7) at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

I would consider a small win bet on Reliable Source (3) and on Strong Slate (9) at odds of 8 to 1 or more

Exactas:

Pondering (7) over Reliable Source (3),The Queens M G (8), Strong Slate (9), and Quietside (11).