Race 9 at Ellis Park | Saturday August 5 | Post Time 5:07 PM Eastern

Kentucky Downs Preview Mint Millions Turf Mile | Purse $200,000 | One Mile on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward

 

Main Contenders:

A full field of 12 lines up (hopefully) for this race where there should be no strong favorite. Trainer Mike Maker, who it seems wins more than his share of stakes race on turf in Kentucky, saddles a pair in the form of Heaven Street (5) and Max K.O. (12) and both have strong chances. Given they open at odds of 10 to 1 and 5 to 1, respectively, we may not have to pick between them because we can adjust our win wagers to bet both and get the same profit if those odds hold up.

Heaven Street (5) ships in from New York and it appears the four year old colt was a private purchase since his last start as he raced for different owners and a different trainer when winning at seven furlongs at Belmont on July 4. That was a classified allowance level race so not much different than this non-graded stakes, and better still Heaven Street won a stakes race previously, the Columbia Stakes, at this mile trip in in March of last year. His last three races have all been strong efforts and there is every reason to suspect, as a four year old, he could run as well or better than he did last month. BEST OF ALL given his last win was earned leading from start to finish, and with NONE of the other four horses drawn inside of him in the gate having ever demonstrated a desire to lead from the start, jockey Torres can put Heaven Street on the lead for a repeat of his wire-to-wire win last month.

Max K.O. (12) may not be disadvantaged by his outside post, as he closed from sixth of seven one before last to win the Mr. Steele Stakes in Florida in May. He also closed from fifth to win two before that in February, at this mile turf trip. Changing barns to Maker before his last start, in a stakes in Minnesota, Max K.O. was a lot closer up in the early stages when second for the first half-mile, before moving up to lead and holding that lead into the stretch before tiring to fifth. Just the same he was beaten a grand total of a length at the end. Now getting one of Maker’s GO TO riders in Corrales and with his stablemate Heaven Street complimenting his late running style, a repeat of the effort Max K.O. put forth one race before last could be good enough for him to earn his 13^th career win.

Two horses open at lower odds so are not considered for win bets but should be used on exacta tickets. They are Fuerteventura (7) and Gray’s Fable (4). Fuerteventura won the stakes in Minnesota in June in which Max K.O. was fifth, jockey Geroux up for the first time and riding back in this race. He had also won one month earlier, and that followed seven months off, so there is potential to run another “A” race good enough to win. However, he was sent to post as the 4 to 5 favorite in that race and may be similarly bet heavily in this situation. The 104 Equibase Speed Figure earned in victory last time out is identical to Heaven Street’s last figure, and to the figure Max K.O. earned winning the Mr. Steele Stakes, which are more reasons to prefer those two at higher odds though Fuerteventura is certainly a contender. Gray’s Fable won this race last year when it was the Evan Williams Turf Mile, getting up by a neck on the wire at 10 to 1 odds. He had run sixth prior to that and this year enters the race in better form off a runner-up effort with a field high 114 last race Equibase Speed Figure. Still, with two wins and two runner-up finishes in his last 11 races dating back to the start of 2022, it appears when he’s not in the mood to run a big race he doesn’t run well at all, and opening at 3 to 1 he’s another I’ll use in exactas but eschew for win bets.

Bets:

Win: Heaven Street (5) and Max K.O. (12) can be bet to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more

Exactas: Heaven Street (5)  and Max K.O. (12) over Heaven Street (5), Max K.O. (12), Fuerteventura (7) and Gray’s Fable (4)

Heaven Street (5), Max K.O. (12), Fuerteventura (7) and Gray’s Fable (4) over Heaven Street (5) and Max K.O. (12)