Race 8 at Oaklawn | Saturday December 16 | Post Time 4:46 PM Eastern

Allowance / Optional Claiming | Purse $142,000 | Six Furlongs | Three Year Olds and Upward

  

Analysis and top win contenders:

Count de Monet (2) returns as a fresh horse from seven months off, and that fact as well as some recent, incredibly fast workouts signify he is going to show the same early speed he did in his first three starts, two when as fresh as he will be here. In his career debut in the summer of 2022, Count de Monet began second then quickly took the lead before coasting home in a field of 10. One month later he led from the start and dominated by nearly seven lengths. After a short break, Count de Monet started at Oaklawn in the Advent Stakes for two year olds, winning by three lengths after stalking the pacesetters in third position in the early stages. He went off form after that, running poorly in four straight races. However, since returning to serious training last month at Oaklawn, he’s been working sensationally and given the strong 94 Equibase Speed Figure he earned winning the Advent Stakes 53 weeks ago is good enough to win, and that in this field there are few, if any, horses which might want to lead early, Count de Monet could be very tough to catch, and beat. As if that weren’t enough, trainer Tom Swearingen has won with three of the last four horses he has brought back from a layoff of six months or more, and ALL here at Oaklawn.

Stayed in for Half (8) is the other horse with the bulk of the probability to win. He has a very strong record of 5-4-1 in 16 races so has been first or second in more than half his starts, and he has a win and a runner-up finish from his only two races at Oaklawn. This year, Stayed in for Half has only finished worse than second once in ix races, and if he repeat the effort put forth winning on the dirt on August 24, earning a 101 Equibase Figure in the process, he might earn his sixth career victory.

Then there is a quartet of horses with a chance of completing the exacta if the top two contenders don’t run one-two. Those are Navy Seal (1), Derby Date (3), Nautical Star (4) and Vulcan (10). Three of the four have more second place finishes than wins in their careers and all have recent efforts which if repeated might be good enough to earn a piece of the purse.

Bets:

Win: Both Count de Monet (2) and Stayed in for Half (8) can be considered for win bets at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.  

Exactas: Count de Monet (2) and Stayed in for Half (8) over Count de Monet (2) Stayed in for Half (8), Navy Seal (1), Derby Date (3), Nautical Star (4) and Vulcan (10).

Doubles:

Race 8: Count de Monet (2), Stayed in for Half (8) WITH Race 9: Speed Bias (4), Double Crown (5)

Race 9 at Oaklawn | Saturday December 16 | Post Time 5:14 PM Eastern

Tinsel Stakes | Purse $200,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds and Upward

Analysis and top win contenders:

Speed Bias (4) drops in class off a neck defeat in a three horse photo in the Grade 2 Fayette Stakes at Keeneland at the end of October. He ran about as gamely as a horse can run in that race as he sat in second in the early stages, about a half-length from the leader, for the first six furlongs, then moved up to engage and battled head-and-head for the lead for the entire last quarter mile. That effort was similar to the race he ran in May when he battled nose and nose to the wire in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special, losing by inches on the wire to multiple stakes winner Rattle N’ Roll. Speed Bias has also demonstrated he likes running at Oaklawn, with four first or second place finishes in six races here over the course of his career. In the Pimlico Special, Speed Bias earned a career-best 107 Equibase Speed Figure, which he came very close to last month in the Fayette, where he earned a 104 figure. Repeating either effort here appears likely and that gives this hard-knocking colt slight preference among a pair with the bulk of the probability to win.

Double Crown (5), like Speed Bias, has run some races this year which make him a very strong contender if he can repeat them, and like Speed Bias, one of those was his most recent. Double Crown finished second in a stakes race at Laurel last month, earning a 103 figure, and three before that he won the Polynesian Stakes with a 105 figure. Although he has more second place finishes (10) in his career as compared to wins (8), that’s not much different to Speed Bias, who has two wins and five second place finishes in his career. Stretching out from seven furlongs to nine Is not a concern, and with his off-the-pace sunning style, with a couple of strong need-the-lead type in Strong Quality (2) and Ardanwood (6) likely to insure a fast pace, Double Crown may be passing the tiring pacesetters for the win in this situation.

War Campaign (1) can be considered for second on exacta tickets played. He finished in that position one before last in a highly rated allowance race at Keeneland, and in the same spot this past July in the Hanshin Stakes.

Bets:

Win: Win bet should be considered on both Speed Bias (4) and on Double Crown (5) at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

Exactas: Speed Bias (4) and Double Crown (5) over Speed Bias (4), Double Crown (5) and War Campaign (1).