Buy TicketsRace 9 at Oaklawn Park | Saturday December 17 | Post Time 5:14 PM Eastern
Tinsel Stakes | Purse $200,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds and Upward
Main contenders:
Last Samurai (1), who has earned more than $1 million to date, has been racing against much tougher competition since August, starting with the Grade 3 Charles Town Classic, followed by the Grade 2 Fayette Stakes and ending with the Grade 1 Clark Stakes. Four race ago, in August, he ran in a very similar race to this one, the R.A. “Cowboy” Jones Stakes, and even after battling head-and-head through sizzling early fractions, Last Samurai nearly won the race, eventually settling for third and beaten less than a length. The horse which beat him for second was West Will Power, who won the Fayette Stakes at the end of October. Last season here at Oaklawn Last Samurai won the Poinsettia Stakes then three later he won the much tougher Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap, which proves he fits with these and then some. With the ground saving rail and likely to in a great stalking sport early as up to three of the others go for the lead from the start, Last Samurai has a more than decent shot to run as he did 53 weeks ago and win this year’s Tinsel Stakes.
Bal Harbour (4) is the other main contender to win. He’s earned nearly three-quarters of a million, but recently on September 5 he was put in a claiming race by Todd Pletcher who was willing to let the multiple stakes winner go. Trainer Robertino Diodoro obliged and picked up the seven year old that day, out of an easy eight length win in a field of nine. Off the win Diodoro put Bal Harbour in the mile and five-eighths TAA Stakes on Breeders’ Cup weekend, where he was no match for the two horses which run the marathon distance well, ending up third of 10. Now cutting back to the distance of his win in the race he was claimed out of, Bal Harbour gets jockey Cristian Torres, Diodoro’s “Go To” rider of late. These two have won 27 of 81 races this year and last (34%) including the similar Mistletoe Stakes last week.
Logical Myth (6) and Run Classic (3) round out the contenders, more for exactas than for consideration for win bets. Logical Myth adds value as he opens at 10 to 1. He just finished second in the very similar Zia Championship Stakes on November 22, and the 103 Equibase Speed Figure earned is nearly on par with the 105 Last Samurai earned in the Cowboy Jones Stakes and the 105 figure Bal Harbour earned in his last win. Logical Myth has been first or second in 14 of 32 races so at his double digit odds he makes a very good horse to use on exacta tickets. On the other hand, Run Classic (3) is a contender but not the standout suggested by his 8 to 5 starting odds. Since returning from an 18 month layoff in September, he’s won twice and lost by a head, BUT all three were allowance level races and the 105 figure he earned most recently is no better than we is expected from any of the other three contenders.