Race 7 at Del Mar | Saturday December 2 | Post Time 6:25 PM Eastern

Hollywood Derby – Grade 1 | Purse $300,000 | One Mile and One Eighth on Turf |Three Year Olds

 

Analysis and top win contenders:

Among the four horses which were separated by a total of one-half length in a blanket finish four weeks ago in the identical Twilight Derby (at Santa Anita), the horse likely to go to post at the highest odds is Reiquist (3) because the public normally always weights on finishing position but sometimes on other factors as well. Twilight Derby third place finisher Webslinger (5) opens at 3 to 1, higher odds than the winner of that race Seal Team (9), who opens at 5 to 1 and higher odds than Twilight Derby runner-up Silver Knott (1) at 6 to 1. Webslinger will likely go to post at the lowest odds of the quartet because of his visually impressive 10^th to third rally in the last eight of a mile, as well as the fact he won the American Turf Stake son Derby day this past May as well as missed by a head in the similar Saratoga Derby, which was won by Program Trading (8), and who opens as the 9 to 5 starting favorite.

As you can see, there are commonalities among many of these, and that’s why a horse like Reiquist (3) is going to go unnoticed by some bettors, making him the one we need to look at first when considering our win bets. The colt has done little wrong since moving to turf three races ago. He finished second at a mile on this turf course in August then was moved up to first when the winner was disqualified. He was just 10 to 1 odds in the Del Mar Derby in September off that maiden win, but had a big traffic issue in the stretch to lose any chance. Showing up two months later in the Twilight Derby, Reiquist ran huge, stalking in fourth until the field turned for home, then battling between horses to be second in the stretch, and finally fighting hard all the way to the wire and ending up fourth but just a half-length from the winner and two noses from the runner-up. Ramon Vasquez rides back and as the colt is making his second start off a two month layoff has every chance to improve and turn the tables on the three horses which finished in front of him just four weeks ago.

Webslinger (5) shows up every time he’s run, with a 3-2-2 record in eight races this year and nearly three-quarters of a million in earnings this year alone. He ran on from 12^th of 13 in the Twilight Derby, into the same kind of moderate pace he’s going to see here, and passed seven horses in the late stages. Prior to that he rallied from seventh of eight to lead in the stretch before just being run down late by Program Trading. There’s no doubt Webslinger has what it takes to win, but he may not have the odds it takes to bet as in this very deep and talented field 3 to 1 (his starting odds) or less may mean the only way to profit from him running well I son exacta tickets.

Seal Team (9) won the Twilight Derby with a nice rally from eighth to fifth to the front, running the best race of his career. Rispoli rides back and the colt’s last eight of a mile in that race was 11.7, second only to Webslinger’s 11.3. The outside post isn’t really a disadvantage since he comes from far back, and in spite of winning an identical race four weeks ago his staring odds of 5 to 1 mean he must be considered for win bets.

The opposite is true of Program Trading (8), who opens at 9 to 5 and similar to Webslinger is a poor win bet anywhere near those odds. He’s a top turf horse in the division though, having won the first three starts of his career including the Saratoga Derby, before making the lead late in the Virginia Derby then run down in the last 16. However, the horse that beat him, Integration, is arguably the TOP three year old horse in the North American sophomore turf division, having won the Hill Prince Stake at Aqueduct in his next start, the LIKELY reason trainer Chad Brown avoided that race and sent Program Trading to California. That being said, he’s as good as, and as likely as, the other three main contenders, and at those low odds we must go looking elsewhere for win bets.

Bets:

Win: We should absolutely consider Reiquist (3) and Seal Team (9) for win bets at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Box Reiquist (3), Webslinger (5), Program Trading (8) and Seal Team (9)

For extra value: Reiquist (3) over ALL and also (the opposite) ALL over Reiquist (3)

Optionally, we can key on the two higher odds horses as follows:

Reiquist (3) and Seal Team (9) over Reiquist (3), Webslinger (5), Program Trading (8) and Seal Team (9)

and also

Reiquist (3), Webslinger (5), Program Trading (8) and Seal Team (9) over Reiquist (3) and Seal Team (9)

Trifectas:

Reiquist (3) and Seal Team (9) over Reiquist (3), Webslinger (5), Program Trading (8) and Seal Team (9) over Reiquist (3), Webslinger (5), Program Trading (8) and Seal Team (9)

and also

Reiquist (3), Webslinger (5), Program Trading (8) and Seal Team (9) over Reiquist (3) and Seal Team (9) over Reiquist (3), Webslinger (5), Program Trading (8) and Seal Team (9)