Race 11 at Fair Grounds | Saturday December 21 | Post Time 6 PM Eastern

Untapable Stakes | Purse $100,000 | Two-Year-Old Fillies | One Mile and 70 Yards

Analysis and top contenders:

The Untapable Stakes is the last race in 2024 for two-year-old fillies who can earn points on the “Road to the Kentucky Oaks” and is a prep for the next race in the series at Fair Grounds, the Silverbulletday Stakes in four weeks on January 18. Eight promising fillies are entered and seven exit wins in their most recent races so there should be value among a few and no strong betting favorite, making it a good betting race as well as one where we can get a sense of who might improve over the next few months.

Among the seven that won their most recent races, only four earned those wins around two-turns. The rest are stretching out to the distance and/or trying two turns for the first time, and the horses that have run similar distances may have an edge. One of those is California Sunset (5), who finished fourth of eight in her debut around one turn but who improved mightily second time out, at the distance or one mile and one-sixteenth. Blinkers were added for that race and that really helped this filly who moved up swiftly on the far turn, although at least six paths wide to get to the front with an eighth of a mile to go. Many horses may have had their energy diminished by that big move, but either because she’s so talented, or because of the blinkers, California Sunset didn’t give an inch the last 220 yards and battled head and head with a rival while remaining in control to win by a neck. That likely took a physical toll on the filly so that’s why she’s been off for two months compared to a shorter time span for many of her rivals. That’s of no concern because she should improve both physically and mentally off that effort in her second two-turn race in a row and third career start. Trainer Bard Cox won the 2023 Untapable with Alpine Princess off a mile and one-sixteenth win one race prior, and with Florent Geroux in the saddle. Geroux rode California Sunset to victory last time out and is aboard again. It must also be noted that her sire, Quality Road, was the sire of Gun Runner Stakes (for males) winner Track Phantom on this date last year, and of 2022 Gun Runner winner Jace’s Road, who was saddled by Brad Cox the same as California Sunset will be today.

Golden Gamble (4) was third behind California Sunset in her debut in late October. Off the experience of that two-turn race, Golden Gamble improved markedly to win one month later by nine lengths. In that race Golden Gamble showed a lot of maturity when relaxing in fourth then moving as she pleased to the lead entering the stretch before being a handy winner. As she is also making her third career start, Golden Gamble has every right to run even better, and she will need to as she moves up from the maiden ranks to stakes competition.

Drexel Hill (8) draws the outside in this eight-horse field, which may be okay as she usually is found fifth or sixth after a quarter mile. Drexel Hill ships down from Canada where she won by six lengths in her most recent race, a nice improvement off her runner-up effort one month earlier. She’s only run on Woodbine’s all-weather surface to date, but she has been working on conventional dirt in Kentucky and Louisiana and appears capable of handling the surface, particularly as a daughter of Bolt d’Oro, whose son Instant Coffee won the Lecomte Stakes (for males on the Derby trail) in January of 2023. In her only two-turn try, Drexel Hill moved up quickly from seventh on the turn to second in the stretch, then didn’t make any more progress. However, in her most recent race the filly improved to make a move from third to first into the stretch before drawing off by six lengths. If she can run similarly well, she could be passing a lot of horses in the late stages in this race.

For the second position on some exacta tickets, we can also consider Amarth (6), who has won two in a row, the most recent of those at one mile and one sixteenth. Although she has the positive experience the other main contenders possess around two turns, her trip when winning last month was a bit easier than either California Sunset or Golden Gamble as Amarth was able to save ground on the rail for most of the race before rallying between horses to win. Just the same, if someone felt she has what it takes to win, I wouldn’t argue.

Bets:

Win Bets – California Sunset (5) at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

As to Golden Gamble (4), her starting odds of 5 to 2 make it unlikely she will offer the same value as California Sunset (for a win bet) but we can profit if she wins playing exactas as suggested below.

Drexel Hill (8) can be considered for a win bet at odds of 4 to 1 or more, for a smaller amount as compared to California Sunset.

Exactas:

Box California Sunset (5) and Golden Gamble (4).

California Sunset (5) and Golden Gamble (4) over California Sunset (5), Golden Gamble (4), Drexel Hill (8) and Amarth (6).

California Sunset (5), Golden Gamble (4) and Drexel Hill (8) over California Sunset (5), Golden Gamble (4), Drexel Hill (8) and Amarth (6).