Race 6 at Turfway Park | Saturday December 23 | Post Time 8:25 PM Eastern

Gowell Stakes | Purse $125,000 | Six Furlongs | Fillies, Two Years Old

 

Analysis and top win contenders:

Trial (9) was extremely impressive in her debut on November 18, showing not only a lot of ability but the mental attitude of a horse with experience, although she had none before that race. Breaking eighth of 10 at the same six furlong distance of this race, Trial was about nine lengths behind after a quarter mile had been run when she began to lengthen her stride. Still fifth and six lengths behind the leader with a quarter mile to run, she began to pick up tempo and put in a very strong rally to win by almost two lengths at the end. She gets the same post position for this race and that will allow her to stay out of traffic trouble while at least five, and up to seven, of the other horses all try for the lead in the opening quarter mile, with at least a couple battling through the lead for the opening half-mile while those in a stalking position are forced to go too fast by pressing the pace. Since the race, Trial has put in two workouts on the all-weather surface at Turfway for a solid trainer in Tom Drury (18% wins on the year), the most recent the 11^th fastest of 136 on the day for a half-mile, which is very strong for a two year old. As such, Trial is sending all the right signals to improve and win again.

Candi Girl has run four times, two on turf, one on dirt, and most importantly one on all-weather. That effort on all-weather came at Turfway Park just 15 day ago and was good enough for high percentage trainer Brad Cox to decide to wheel her back quickly in this stakes race. That effort on December 8 also came following nearly three months off so there’s room to improve as well second off the layoff. Jockey Concepcion had decided to make Turfway his home for the meet and has been quite impressive in winning 11 of 56 races (20%) so far, including three of five for Cox, one of those aboard this filly. She closed from fourth of 10 to finish second in her debut in July so even though she won after racing close up in second in the early stages two weeks ago, she may not get caught up in the likely hot and contested early pace scenario, making her a strong contender to win in this field.

Julias Dream (3) ships in from California for excellent trainer Mike McCarthy, off a win at five furlongs on turf. She won at the same distance on grass in her debut in August, with her only poor race on conventional dirt. Good efforts on turf often translate very well to similarly good efforts on all-weather, and in that last win on November 10, Julias Dream showed some mental fortitude in being passed after leading past the half-mile mark, staying second for another quarter mile, then asserting herself in the final strides. Red hot jockey Machado (24% wins at the meet to date) takes the mount and like Candi Girl, Julias Dream fits as a contender here if she doesn’t get involved in the likely hot and contested early pace.

With a slightly lesser chance to win than the three above, Pipit (8) can be considered a contender, at the least for any exacta and trifecta tickets we play in this race. She wanted no part of a two-turn race last month when seventh of eight in the Grade 3 Grey Stakes at Woodbine but her previous three starts, all sprints, were excellent efforts, particularly her only win to date in July. In that race Pipit sat last of four and about five lengths off a moderate early pace before moving up nicely on the turn to get the lead into the stretch before drawing off by four lengths. That effort came in a non-graded stakes just like this one, making her the ONLY stakes winner in the field and the cut back to one turn certainly helps her chances to run well.

The five horses I think will contest the early pace and get tired after battling for the lead are Baraye (1), who has to go from the rail as fast as possible so as not to let any horses get in front of her, Logistics (2), who also draws inside and has to be sent to the lead, Leslie’s Loot (6), Secret Glenda (10) and Pinotslilgirl (11).

Bets:

Win: I think if this race were run as-is 100 times, the three main contenders – Trial (9), Candi Girl (7) and Julia’s Dream (3) – would win around 75 of those hundred races.

Therefore each has a 25% chance to win and that equals 3 to 1 fair odds for win bets on any of the three. I would say if two of the three are 4 to 1 or more, then betting on both is a good idea.

Exactas:

Box Trial (9), Candi Girl (7) and Julia’s Dream (3)

Box Trial (9), Candi Girl (7) and Julia’s Dream (3), Pipit (8)