Race 9 at Fair Grounds | Saturday December 30 | Post Time 5:45 PM Eastern

Pago Hop Stakes | Purse $100,000 | One Mile on Turf | Three Year Old Fillies

 

Analysis and top win contenders:

Musical Score (5) showed her promise by winning in a turf route in her career debut in May, rather easily by four lengths. Perhaps to mature or perhaps because of a minor issue, she wasn’t seen again until August, finishing third in a first level allowance versus older. Two raced later she ran a big race at a mile on grass when battling through the stretch and then pulling off a bit to win by a half-length. Then, a bit over a month ago and in her first start on the Fair Grounds turf, Musical Score rallied nicely from sixth with a quarter mile to run, to get second at the end while out finished by Tufani (3), who was eighth with a quarter mile to go. I think that race was the last time Tufani is going to finish in front of Musical Score, because Pedroza rides back and because trainer Brad Cox (who also saddles Free Look (12) ) has her much tighter today. The 101 Equibase Speed Figure Musical Score earned is the second best last race figure (behind Tufani with 105) and she had improved from an 88 figure one month before that so the pattern suggests a career-best effort, and a win.

That being said, Free Look (12), the other horse trained by Cox, has a decent shot to win as well. The filly won in her second career start last summer on the grass at Saratoga and was highly enough regarded she ran next in the Grade 2 Miss Grillo Stakes, coming up just three-quarters of a length short in second at the wire. Still so well regarded she was entered in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, she wasn’t disgraced when sent to post at seven to won, checking in fifth of 14 at the end. Well regarded in her three year old debut as the 9 to 5 favorite in the Florida Oaks in March, she was bumped early and found herself 11^th of 12 but closed fast for fourth. Coming back from six months off and moving from the Brown barn to Cox, Free Look stayed in an off turf race and won gamely after moving up from fourth at the half-mile mark and battling for the lead with an eight of a mile to go. Geroux rode her for the first time in that race and rides back as she moves back to her preferred surface. Cox wins at a very high 30% clip back-to-back and her opening odds of 5 to 1 may be too good to pass up if near that threshold at post time.

Tufani (3) was visually impressive in that November 18 win when eighth on the turn then first into the stretch. She had won two in a row on turf in May and June, also her first and second ever races around two turns on grass, so she’s now three for six and can win back-to-back as she did in the spring. However, that effort last out, even with a 105 field high figure, may be an outlier as she had not come close to it previously so we should be careful at least insofar as win bets are concerned, although she must be considered for any exacta and trifecta wagers we make in this race.

Watch This Birdie (4) rounds out a quartet which stand out against the rest, with all four possessing an off-the-pace running style in race TOP HEAVY with “Early Speed” types. There is little doubt Callie’s Girl (7), Ann Alee (8), Kerry (10) and Condensation (11) are need-the-lead types, the latter two (as well as Fit and Famous (15) (if she draws into the race) having to go fast from poor outside posts to get good position before the first turn, all causing the early pace to be hotly contested, and hot. Watch This Birdie, as well as Musical Score, Free Look and Tufani, should all benefit from the fast early pace, with Watch This Birdie as impressive in victory last month as Tufani, in that she was fifth, 11 lengths from the leader after a quarter mile, then rallied four paths wide to lead in the stretch before coasting home. That effort earned a 99 figure and her recent pattern of 90-97-99 suggests she can run even better in this situation.  

Bets:

Win: IF both Musical Score (5) and Free Look (12) are five to two or higher odds near post time, I won’t hesitate betting both as I consider them an uncoupled Cox entry and the trainer’s red hot record at the meeting to date (nine for 36) suggests one of them will win.

Minimum odds on the other two, Tufani (3) and Watch This Birdie (4) are seven to two and if by any chance they are higher than that I might consider a wager, but if not we will absolutely use them on exacta tickets.

Exactas: As a four horse box in a 12 horse field is not a bad bet, we can certainly make the bet.

However, my preference is to use the two top contenders and try to win the bet multiple times, as follows:

Musical Score (5) and Free Look (12) over Musical Score (5), Free Look (12), Tufani (3) and Watch This Birdie (4).

Then also Musical Score (5), Free Look (12), Tufani (3) and Watch This Birdie (4) over Musical Score (5) and Free Look (12).