Race 10 at Gulfstream Park | Saturday December 31 | Post Time 4:40 PM Eastern

Harlan’s Holiday Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $150,000 | One Mile and One-Sixteenth | Three Years Olds and Upward

Top contenders:

O’ Connor (1) won nine of 18 races in his native Chile before importing to the U.S. to run here at Gulfstream and at this mile and one-sixteenth trip last October. Even after six months off he picked up where he left off, in a second level allowance race when rallying from fifth of seven early to win powerfully by six lengths. This Grade 3 stakes is a couple of steps up but since he earned a field high 105 Equibase Figure and winning so easily, he’s the one to beat. That being said he opens as the 8 to 5 favorite and a win bet may not be the best approach to making a profit from this pretty logical horse, not to mention there are two others who have slight upset potential.

Those two are Clapton (8) and South Bend (5). Clapton (8) has had a good campaign in 2022, with a 3-2-2 record in 10 races, and all four of his career wins (in 16 starts) have come on the Gulfstream Park main track. Most importantly, he’s three compared to five for O’ Connor so Clapton potentially has improving to do while O’ Connor may have run the fastest he’s capable of. That may mean something as Clapton earned 102 Equibase Figures in two of his last three races. Getting RED HOT Tyler Gaffalione for the first time, who is two for six when riding for trainer Alvarado the past two years, Clapton has one more significant factor in his favor and that is his most recent workout as SPECTACULAR as he blazed four furlongs over the track on 12/24 in 48 flat, which was the best of ONE HUNDRED and FIFTY-EIGHT workouts at the distance on the day. He opens at 8 to 1 odds.

South Bend (5) opens at 6 to 1 and would be playable to win at those odds. He’s winless in eight races this year BUT missed by a nose and a head in a stakes quality allowance race at Churchill Downs when last seen in November, with a 100 figure, and he finished second in THIS RACE in 2021 at six to one odds after shipping in from an identical prep race in Kentucky. Rosario rides and the similarity to last year is very hard to ignore.

Win bets:

As for win bets, I would bet Clapton (8) or South Bend (5) to win at four to one or higher.

 

O’ Connor (1) isn’t nearly as good of a win bet as either Clapton (8) or South Bend (5) so we’ll use exactas to profit if he wins.

 

Exactas:

O’ Connor (1) over South Bend (5), Clapton (8)

Box O’ Connor (1), South Bend (5), Clapton (8)

 

Trifectas: (for these bets we’ll add Pioneer of Medina (2) and Skippylongstocking (7).

O’ Connor (1) over Pioneer of Medina (2), South Bend (5), Skippylongstocking (7), Clapton (8) over Pioneer of Medina (2), South Bend (5), Skippylongstocking (7), Clapton (8)