Race 4 at Aqueduct | Saturday December 7 | Post Time 1:08 PM Eastern

Go For Wand Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $200,000 | One Mile | Fillies and Mares, Three Years Old and Upward

Analysis and top contenders:

Comparative (5) appears to stand out in this field, and I believe she will not be the favorite because she’s coming back from nearly eight months off and because others in the field have top form in more recent races.

The reason I believe Comparative has such a strong chance to win is the race she ran the last time she came back from a layoff. She had been off from May of 2023 to November of 2023, nearly identical to the layoff she’s coming back from today as she last ran in April. That effort in a one-turn mile race at Aqueduct identical to this one-turn mile race at Aqueduct, was one of the best of her career. Under Manny Franco, who rides today, Comparative stalked the early pacesetters in third, then second, for the first three-quarters of a mile, then early took over and drew away late. That effort earned her a career-best 103 Equibase Figure, which she nearly equaled two races later, also at Aqueduct, when winning the Ladies Stakes in January.

Then one month later this past February, Comparative won the Grade 2 Bayakoa Stakes at Oaklawn, also under Franco, before two poor efforts which led to the layoff she’s coming back from today. Cox has a tremendously good 36%-win rate with horses coming back from six months off more and if that 103-speed figure effort from November of last year is repeated, she is going to be very tough to beat. It could even be improved upon now that she’s a more mature four year old, and since she has five wins in 11 races on fast dirt which it is likely she’ll be running on in this race, and no seconds,  not only is Comparative a good win bet, she’s also a good exacta key bet in the win position, because some of the others may off excellent value for exacta wagers.

Movie Moxy (4), Ain’t Broke (7) and Shidabhuti (8) all have a slight chance to win and an even better chance to be part of the exacta, as do Tizzy in the Sky (1) and Occult (3). That leaves only Stonewall Star (2) and Rachel’s Rock (6) asnon-contenders, and so the best thing to do for exacta tickets played is to use all seven other horses, although I could see leaving off Stonewall Star and Rachel’s Rock as well.

Bets:

Win: Comparative (5) at odds as low as 3 to 2, a low odds overlay win bet.

Exactas: Comparative over ALL.