Race 9 at Oaklawn | Saturday December 9 | Post Time 5:14 PM Eastern

Mistletoe Stakes | Purse $150,000 | One Mile |Fillies and Mares, Three Year Olds and Upward

  

Analysis and top win contenders:

Last year’s Mistletoe Stakes winner, Lovely Ride (4) opens at the same 4 to 1 odds she was when crossing the finish line one year ago. She enters this year’s race off a layoff since May 29, similar enough as when winning last year off a two month layoff we can consider the effort from last year repeatable. The win last year in this race was the first of two straight stakes wins, both in non-graded stakes, before a big second place effort in the Grade 3 Bayakoa Stakes in February. She went off form after that for three races before the layoff and appears ready to win, adding to her nearly 50% career win rate (six for 14) on dirt to date.

Coastal Charm (6) also likes to win, with five victories in 11 lifetime dirt starts. Three of those have come at Oaklawn, from five starts, including a win around two turns last April that earned her a 99 Equibase Speed Figure. She ran a bit faster three months later when winning the Iowa Distaff Stakes with a 102 figure, as good as the 102 figure Lovely Ride earned winning the Pippin Stakes here at Oaklawn this past January. In between those wins, Coastal Charm won the Dig A Diamond Stakes at Oaklawn so has about the same credentials and probability to win, as Lovely Ride, with the rest of the field mostly in good form but not as fast with their best efforts to date.

Adaline Julia (9), Ice Orchid (10) and Butterbean (11) are just a cut below the top three and may be considered for some exacta wagers made in this race.

Bets:

Win: Considering Lovely Ride (4) opens at 4 to 1 and Coastal Charm (6) at 9 to 2, and that in my opinion if you ran this race 100 times, between the two horses they might win about 70% of the time, their fair odds are 9 to 5.

Therefore either can be considered for win bets at 9 to 5 or more. If both are about 50% above that level, which is 3 to 1 or more, I think both can be bet for a decent profit because if we bet $2 on both, for a total of $4 and either of them pay $8, that’s a 100% profit.

Exactas:

Box Lovely Ride (4) and Coastal Charm (6).

Lovely Ride (4) and Coastal Charm (6) over Lovely Ride (4), Coastal Charm (6), Adaline Julia (9), Ice Orchid (10) and Butterbean (11).