Race 10 at Tampa Bay Downs | Saturday February 11 | Post Time 5:18 PM Eastern

Sam F. Davis Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $250,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Three Year Olds

Top Contenders:

Prairie Hawk (2) was well regarded at odds of three to one in his debut last October in a six furlong sprint but he faded to sixth of 10 after pressing the pace in second for the first half of the race. Stretched out to two-turns for his second career start in December, Prairie Hawk was a much different horse. Rallying and opening up by three lengths entering the stretch, he held the lead to the wire. Four weeks ago on January 13 and in his third career start, second around two turns and second at Tampa Bay Downs, Prairie Hawk took the lead from the start and was never threatened. His improving pattern of Equibase Speed Figures, from 67 to 84 and then to 91, suggest he will run another career-best effort today. Before leaving trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.’s base at Gulfstream Park, Prairie Hawk put in a strong half-mile workout (46.4) and once again gets the services of Tampa Bay Downs leading jockey Samy Camacho who rode the colt to his last two wins. As a son of Curlin there’s little doubt Prairie Hawk can contend in the big races for three year olds, particularly as his dam Princess Ash produced Quip, the winner of the 2018 Tampa Bay Derby.

Litigate (11) is another horse that ships in from Gulfstream Park, this one for Todd Pletcher. The colt won his sprint debut last November with a very strong 92 speed figure for a two year old, duplicating that effort almost two months later on January 8 when second in a highly rated allowance race. Winner Cyclone Mischief returned in the Holy Bull Stakes last weekend and ran poorly, but Litigate may take another step forward as he tries two-turns for the first time, getting the services of Luis Saez, and who also put in a strong half-mile workout (best of 31 on the day) in preparation for this race.

Groveland (5) must be considered a contender as he was only one length behind Prairie Hawk in that allowance race over the track last month. He has continued to improve since his debut, particularly since stretched out to two-turns for the first time in December, earning an 87 figure which he bettered to 89 last month. Jockey Centeno got familiar with him in that race and rides back, which is another good sign for a competitive effort.

Worthington (1) has figures as good as the top contenders in this race, particularly the 96 figure earned on November 26, one race before last. He won that race by two and one-half lengths under Saez, who chooses to ride Litigate in this race. All four career starts to date have been on turf, but the colt has breeding to run just as well on the dirt as the dam’s other two foals are winners in dirt routes and as he is by Classic Empire, winner of some big stakes races including the 2017 Arkansas Derby. A Race Lens query reveals trainer Mike Maker has a good record (18% wins) moving horses from turf to dirt for stakes, and the colt’s 90 and 96 last two figures stand up well with the other main contenders.

I am taking a stand against possible betting favorite Dubyuhnell (7), winner of the Remsen Stakes last December in his final start as a two year old. The reasons are many, but the most important are he is giving away physical condition to most of the rest of the field which ran last month, as well as the record of Remsen winners in their three year old debuts is not good. Only Mohayman, who won the 2016 Holy Bull Stakes in his three year old debut, succeeded in a similar situation, with 10 of the other 11 most recent Remsen winners having poor comebacks in their three year old debuts, with the possible exception of Catholic Boy, who was second in the 2018 Sam F. Davis Stakes.

Win bets:

I think Prairie Hawk (2) and Litigate (11) have about a 25% chance to win, which equates to 3 to 1 fair odds, so I will be either, or both, at 3 to 1 or higher odds near post time.

Also, given Groveland (5) opens at 12 to 1 and Worthington (1) opens at 20/1, at least token win bets may be warranted so as not to be kicking ourselves after the race. I think minimum odds for win bets on these two are about 6 to 1.

Exactas:

Box Prairie Hawk (2) and Litigate (11)

Box Worthington (1), Prairie Hawk (2), Groveland (5) and Litigate (11)

Optional Exacta, or Trifecta:

Prairie Hawk (2) and Litigate (11) over Worthington (1), Prairie Hawk (2), Classic Legacy (3), Groveland (5), Classic Car Wash (6), Dubyuhnell (7), Champions Dream (9) and Litigate (11)

If played as a trifecta we would use the same horses in the third position as in the second position. The cost of a $1 exacta above is $14 and the cost of a $0.50 trifecta as above is $42.