Race 13 at Fair Grounds | Saturday, February 18 | Post Time 7:14 PM Eastern

Risen Star Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $400,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds

Top Contenders:

After some good fortune last week in the Sam F. Davis Stakes where we took a stand against favorite Dubyuhnell (because he was returning off a two month layoff and had some question marks) and cashed nicely on a $53 exacta (for $1) and a $263 trifecta (for $0.50), I think the Risen Star Stakes has similar profit potential.

Tapit’s Conquest (8) has yet to run in a stakes but appears to have the most potential to improve and make his mark in the division. Starting his career last summer at Saratoga in a sprint, the colt improved markedly when trying two-turns in the second start of his career last October, opening up by four lengths in the stretch and coasting home in a field of 10. Rested over two months, Tapit’s Conquest made his three year old debut four weeks ago on January 1, at Fair Grounds, at a mile and one-sixteenth. In spite of being away for a long time, Tapit’s Conquest rallied from fifth to miss by a neck on the wire. The winner was Determinedly, who had run much more recently and who was ahead by three lengths with an eighth of a mile to run.  Tapit’s Conquest should run much better in his second start off a layoff and second as a three year old, and we can expect him to take another big step forward off the career-best 98 Equibase Speed Figure earned in that race. With the exception of the 99 figure Private Creed earned on turf last month when second in the Texas Turf Mile Stakes, the figures Determinedly and Tapit’s Conquest earned are the highest dirt figures in the field. Considering Tapit’s Conquest should improve off his last effort and that the colt put in a very sharp fourth best of 62 five furlong workout coming into this race, he gets top billing to win this year’s Risen Star Stakes.

Two Phil’s (10) is also making his second start as a three year old and that could give him an edge over horses which either have not run this year or those which have run more than once this year. After a poor seventh place effort in the Breeders’ Futurity last October, also his first try around two turns, Two Phil’s proved his belongs in the division with a decisive five length win in the Street Sense Stakes three week later, earning a career best 93 speed figure. Rested almost three months, Two Phil’s returned in the Lecomte Stakes, the same race 2022 Kentucky Jockey Club winner Instant Coffee made his sophomore debut in. After rallying from fifth to get within a head of the lead at the top of the stretch, Two Phil’s was no match for Instant Coffee and ended up second, beaten two and one-half lengths but more importantly was five and one-quarter lengths ahead of the third horse. Earning a new career-best 95 figure for that effort, Two Phil’s also has tremendous upside for improvement in his second start off the layoff and every right to run well enough to win.  

Silver Heist (11) has potential to post the upset in this race as he will be ignored by bettors favoring horses with stakes experience, or just more experience in general. The colt is making only the third start of his career and is the most lightly raced entrant in the field. On the other hand he’s a son of Tapit (also the sire of Tapit’s Conquest), who has sired a high number of top three year olds the past few years. He’s also one of three trained by Steve Asmussen (the other two being Harlocap and Private Creed). Silver Heist was making only the second start of his career and first start in a route last month in the race won by Determinedly and in which Tapit’s Conquest finished second, and he was only one length behind the winner. The 96 figure earned was pretty strong and logically can be improved upon in his second route and third start. Better still he put in a 59.4 five furlong workout in preparation for the race which was the best of the day at the distance.

Determinedly (4) won that race at Fair Grounds last month leading from start to finish with a 98 figure which would be competitive in the Risen Star if repeated, but he has also won from off the pace as well as he did two races before that. In between those two efforts came a third place finish as the odds-on favorite in the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds so it may be more difficult to predict a repeat of his last effort, particularly as jockey Luis Saez, who rode Determinedly in his last four races, gets off to ride Angel of Empire. Nevertheless, I would not argue with anyone who believes he can win.

Victory Formation (13) has to be mentioned as win contender if for no other reason than he’s undefeated in three starts. He’s also one of three from the formidable Brad Cox barn (the other two being Tapit’s Conquest and Angel of Empire). Stretching out to two turns for the first time in the Smarty Jones Stakes to start the year, Victory Formation led every step of the way, widening to a three length margin which could have been more as he was ridden out in the late stages. As such, the 97 figure Victory Formation earned can be improved upon. Although leading from start to finish in the Smarty Jones, the colt showed he could win from off the pace prior to that when stalking in second in the early stages and the win last time out came from the outside in a field of eight. However, the 13 post he may break from in this field is a bit more problematic so I am not sure he can repeat those efforts. It must be noted Cox saddled Mandaloun to win this race in 2021 on a very similar pattern to Victory Formation so he can’t be ruled out as a win contender in this very deep and contentious field.  

Horses to consider for exacta bets in this big field and likely at high odds include Single Ruler (2), a last out maiden winner saddled by Keith Desormeaux, who pulled off the huge upset 10 years ago with Ive Struck a Nerve ($272 for $2), Angel of Empire (6), who finished second to Victory Formation recently and Crupi (12), who has yet to break his maiden in five starts but who is trained by Todd Pletcher and who enters the race off a head defeat with a speed figure competitive to many in this field. With regard to these three, personally I am covering them in the exacta plays below using “ALL” in second position under Tapit’s Conquest and Two Phil’s.

Win bets: With odds being the most important criteria to consider before making win bets I will be betting Tapit’s Conquest (8) and Two Phil’s (10) if either or both are 7 to 2 or higher odds near post time.

Additionally, I will consider a smaller win bet on Silver Heist (11) at 5 to 1 or higher.

This is based on the likely proposition that the two other main contenders, Determinedly (4) and Victory Formation (13) would be much lower than minimum odds of about 7 to 2.

Exactas:

The first strategy is to maximize profit by avoiding the lowest paying combinations between the two favorites Determinedly and Victory Formation so we should consider these two tickets:

Box Determinedly (4), Tapit’s Conquest (8), Two Phil’s (10) and Silver Heist (11)

Box Tapit’s Conquest (8), Two Phil’s (10), Silver Heist (11) and Victory Formation (13)

Although win bets on either (or both) Tapit’s Conquest and Two Phil’s should be profitable, I would also consider two small exacta key bets as follows:

Tapit’s Conquest (8) and Two Phil’s (10) over ALL

Additionally, if either of those two is 10/1 or more at post time I might consider turning those bets around and playing ALL over Tapit’s Conquest (8) and Two Phil’s (10), which could pay handsomely if a big longshot wins such as was the case in 2013 when Ive Struck a Nerve paid $272 for a $2 win bet.

Additionally, considering Silver Heist is going to likely go to post at double digit odds, in addition to a small win bet, a $1 (or more) “exacta as a place bet” appears well worth the risk:

ALL over Silver Heist (11)