Race 11 at Oaklawn Park | Sunday, February 23 | Post Time 6:23 PM Eastern

Rebel Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $1.25 Million | Three Year Olds | One Mile and One Sixteenth

Analysis:

Four horses bring a three-race pattern of improving Equibase Speed Figures into this year’s Rebel Stakes and as we would expect three-year-old horses to continue to improve physically and mentally as they race towards the Kentucky Derby those are the ones to look to first. The best of that group is Smoken Wicked (9), with 104, 105 and then 112 figures in his last three races, all sprints. Similarly, Dreaminblue (7) earned an 87 figure three races back in a two-turn race, followed by 101 and 104 figures in sprints. Sandman (3) earned an 81 figure three back in the Street Sense Stakes at the distance of the Rebel, followed by a 97 figure then a 101 figure in the Southwest. Given the trouble Sandman had at the start of that race, where he spotted the field many lengths after breaking poorly, he might have earned the same 103 figure Speed King earned winning that race. Speed King (11) is another of those horses on the same pattern as he earned a 93 figure I his debut in November then 95 before the 103 in the Southwest.

Top Contenders:

Among the four horses above who should continue to improve, the betting value will likely lie with Dreaminblue (7) because his win came in a maiden race, and he has not yet won a two-turn race. That’s fine with me, because since adding blinkers two races back he has really showed he understands what he needs to do in a race. There’s no doubt in my mind that Dreaminblue can run as well at this distance as he did in his most recent race, because his sire Street Boss has produced several exceptional two-turn winners. Street Boss’s progeny include the 2024 Prince of Wales Stakes winner Vitality, and Who Took the Money, who won 11 of 27 races and earned more than $600,000. When Dreaminblue could only manage fourth of 10 in his previous two-turn race in December, that was just the second of his career and was without the blinkers added for his last two races which have been exceptional. As such, with a likely hot pace to close into and with just modest improvement needed to equal the 105 Equibase speed figures the last two winners of the Rebel have earned, I believe Dreaminblue can post the upset win in this excellent field.

Sandman (3) rallied valiantly for second among nine in the Southwest Stakes last month, earning a 101 Equibase speed figure. He had already won a two-turn race at Oaklawn in December prior to that, with a 97 figure, and he earned that win professionally after racing in fifth and sixth for the first three quarters of a mile. He was much further back when ninth after a quarter mile and half mile in the Southwest after a poor start, and jockey Cristian Torres did not panic because he had ridden the colt in his win one month earlier. Making up ground with every stride in the stretch, Sandman was only one length back at the finish. In the Southwest, because American Promise broke slowly, Speed King obtained an easy lead from the start and was able to open up by three and one-half lengths in the stretch, which enabled him to hold his margin to the wire. In this year’s Rebel, Innovator (incidentally from the same barn of D. Wayne Lukas as American Promise) has a very strong need-the-lead style and is drawn three post position inside Speed King in the gate. Those two could hook up on a lively tempo which would make them both susceptible to being passed late, and in that case, Sandman can take full advantage to run well enough to win.

Publisher, Smoken Wicked and Bullard all have some potential to run well and may have only slightly less probability to succeed than either Dreaminblue and Sandman. Of note, Publisher was rallying strongly along the rail in the Southwest when another horse crossed over in front of him, causing Publisher to clip heels and nearly fall. Red hot Flavien Prat rides Publisher for the first time, and although he is winless in five career starts, this son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, who earned a strong 100 figure at this distance and at Oaklawn right before the Southwest, could run better than his high odds suggest he will. Smoken Wicked has won two stakes races in a row, both restricted to Louisiana bred horses and both sprints. Nevertheless, those efforts earned two of the best last two figures in the field (105 and 112). His sire, Bobby’s Wicked One, has only had runners since last year so it is unknown if his sons and daughters can run well in two-turn races. However, it must be noted Tyler Gaffalione rides for the first time, and the horse has shown a stalking style in his last two races, so he could be in a position to take over in the stretch if the pacesetters tire as expected and be a factor at likely very high odds. Bullard won the first two starts of his career, both sprints, including the Bob Hope Stakes in November. He ran evenly in the San Vicente Stakes last month behind the highly rated Barnes, and he too has a stalking style which could help him improve. Although he only earned an 87 figure in the San Vicente, Bullard earned a strong 105 figure in the Bob Hope so he too appears to fit with this group. Additionally, Tiztastic must be considered as a horse which can finish second or third, as he rallied from seventh to third behind Speed King and Sandman in the Southwest, earning a career-best 99 figure.

In my opinion there are no knocks on either Speed King or on Innovator, except for the fact that their previous races AND their post positions make it pretty obvious they will have to expend a good deal of early energy trying to make it to the front from outside posts before the first turn. Given that both have led through the opening quarter mile and half mile in each of their last three races, this appears to be a “immovable object versus irresistible force” situation which makes them both vulnerable to being passed in the late stages, although Speed King’s 103 figure from the Southwest and Innovator’s 101 figure from his win just before the Lecomte are comparable to the top contenders in this field.

Bets:

Win: We should consider win bets on both Dreaminblue (7) and Sandman (3) at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.

Exactas:

Dreaminblue (7) and Sandman (3) over All

All over Dreaminblue (7) and Sandman (3) over All