Race 10 at Oaklawn Park | Saturday February 25 | Post Time 5:43 PM EasternHoneybee Stakes – Grade 3 Purse $300,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Fillies, Three Year Olds

Top Contenders:

The Honeybee Stakes is an important race on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks and drew a full field of 12 three year old fillies, with seven entering the race off first or second place finishes. Before we get to the contenders let’s discuss a horse I think is a “vulnerable” morning line favorite, Grand Love (3), who helps make the race very playable. As we’ve seen recently in the Road to the Derby division, horses making their first starts as three year olds tend to be bet by the public at large as if they ran last month, rather than last fall, and that is the case with Grand Love, who was last seen on November fourth when finishing sixth of 13 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She had won in her debut in August, in a sprint, then finished third as the even money favorite in the Pocahontas Stakes in September. She was a need-the-lead type last year and there is absolutely no reason she should be the favorite as she is far from the most probable horse to win this race. Still, I hope the public at large follows suit with the low morning line and that will result in other horses offering value for win bets.

The top two in terms of probability to win are the next two morning line favorites, Wet Paint (7), who opens at 7 to 2 and Towhead (2), who opens at 9 to 2. We’ll start with Towhead, not only because of higher odds but also because she’s drawn beautifully in the two post, outside a horse in Effortlesslyelgant (1), who led from start to finish four weeks ago in a six furlong sprint and who will have to be sent for the lead from the start. That allows Towhead to get the rail easily going into the first turn as Effortlesslyelgant, Grand Love, Condensation (5) (who just led from start to finish at a mile), as well as the three most outside horses – Doudoudouwanadance (10), Olivia Twist (11) and Taxed (12) set the pace or push the horses which are in front. Considering Towhead relaxed in fourth at the half mile-mark last time out before launching her bid and easily drawing off, she should get a dream trip under Isaac Castillo, who rode her for the first time in her first local start on January 20.

Wet Paint (7) debuted on turf and that was completely irrelevant. Since then her three dirt races have all been “A” efforts, resulting in a win in October, a runner-up effort in December and a very strong win on January 28. That last win came in the local prep for the Honeybee, the Martha Washington Stakes, in which Flavien Prat (who was riding for the first time and who rides today), got her to relax in sixth early before she made a big move on the turn to get to third, then drew off late. She’s improved in each of her three starts since her debut, has put in a big workout at Oaklawn coming into the race, and has every right to win.

After the top pair, there are six horses which can run well, excluding Grand Love, who I’m taking a stand against. Some of those will go to post at high odds, and all can be considered for second on exacta wagers and third on trifecta wagers. Those are Gambling Girl (4), who finished second in the Busanda Stakes in New York last month, Condensation (5), who in spite of wiring the field two weeks ago has closed from behind, and the four most outside runners – Defining Purpose (8), Boss Lady Bailey (9), Doudoudouwanadance (10), Olivia Twist (11) and Taxed (12). Taxed finishes second, Defining Purpose third, in the Martha Washington behind Wet Paint while Boss Lady Bailey was second behind Towhead last month. Doudoudouwanadance won the first three starts of her career last summer and fall then ran badly and put in a very strong second best of 131 five furlong workout so could rebound, while Olivia Twist showed she belongs at this level when winning the Trapeze Stakes in December but faltered badly when fifth in the Martha Washington.

Win bets:

I will consider win bets on Towhead (2) and Wet Paint (7) at odds of 2 to 1 or higher, with emphasis on Towhead as she will likely present higher odds.

Exactas:

Towhead (2) and Wet Paint (7) over Towhead (2), Gambling Girl (4), Condensation (5), Defining Purpose (8), Boss Lady Bailey (9), Doudoudouwanadance (10), Olivia Twist (11) and Taxed (12).