Race 9 at Tampa Bay Downs | Saturday February 8 | Post Time 4:14 PM Eastern

Suncoast Stakes | Purse $150,000 | Fillies, Three Years Olds | One Mile and Forty Yards

Analysis and top contenders:

In this pretty solid field for three-year-old fillies on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks, Her Laugh (4) is one of three that appear talented and capable of winning. She won her debut at six furlongs on November but it was her second start, her most recent, which was incredibly impressive. That was in the Untapable Stakes at Fair Grounds on December 21, in which Her Laugh established the early pace in front from the start and got stronger and stronger as the race went on, before coasting home unchallenged to a two and one-half length win. That race was run at one mile and seventy yards, nearly identical to the distance of this race, and the filly is likely to run even better as this will be her third career start and second race in a row around two turns. Although Her Laugh won the Untapable leading from start to finish, she is not necessarily a need-the-lead type, as her debut win came in very mature fashion as she was fourth after a quarter mile and third after a half mile before moving up quickly to lead entering the stretch. Considering the 85 Equibase Speed Figure earned is the best two-turn figure in the field among the few that have run this far, and considering Irad Ortiz, Jr., who did not ride her in her first two starts, comes over from Gulfstream (where he’s been riding nearly every day) to ride, suggests Her Laugh will be very tough to beat in this situation.

That being said, newly turned three-year-olds can improve markedly from one race to the next and that gives Junta (5) a nice shot as she won in her debut the same as Her Laugh did before winning the Untapable. Junta earned her win here at Tampa so has familiarity Her Laugh lacks, but the win came at seven furlongs, so Her Laugh has familiarity with two turns which Junta lacks. Just the same, the 85 Equibase Speed Figure earned is the same as Her Laugh and this filly can be expected to improve solidly off the experience of a race. Like Her Laugh in her sprint debut, Junta ran a very mature race in her debut when relaxed in third then second in the opening stages so she could be in a great position to win turning for home once again.

Italian Soiree (3) also won in her first start, last July, also a sprint. She was second in the Adirondack Stakes (also a sprint) last August in her second start then stretched out to two turns and moved to grass for her next two. Although she didn’t win, finishing fourth of 11 in the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes then fifth of 11 in the Grade 2 Jessamine Stakes, neither effort was disgraceful at all. She returns as a three-year-old with blinkers on to help her focus and with a string of excellent morning workouts on the dirt at Tampa Bay Downs, suggesting she’s been pointing to this race since last fall. Red Hot Flavien Prat rides and Italian Soiree has a pedigree for routing on dirt as a half-sister to Be Better, who won a stakes at one mile and one-eighth. As such, and particularly as she may come in under the radar of some bettors, Italian Soiree should be respected when considering wagers we make in this race.

Honorable mention goes to La Cara (6), who won the Grade 3 Pocohontas Stakes in September of last year before a fifth of nine finish, beaten 10 lengths, in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. The Pocohontas was run at a mile around one turn and it could have been she was just overmatched in the Breeders’ Cup, so she deserves a look, but I think she may need a race before her best considering the three-month layoff and the fact the top two contenders easy ran much more recently. Similarly, Dancing Music (2) won the seven-furlong Gasparilla Stakes last month and could get up for a piece, as could easy seven length winner (on grass) Deloraine (1) and recent maiden winner around two-turns at Tampa, Queen in the Deck (7).

Bets:

Win Bets: Her Laugh (4), being the most probable to win, should be considered at 2 to 1 or more.

Junta (5) might be considered for a win bet at 3 to 1 or more, as might Italian Soiree (3).

Exactas: Her Laugh (4) over Junta (5), Italian Soiree (3), La Cara (6), Dancing Music (2), Deloraine (1) and Queen in the Deck (7).

Her Laugh (4), Junta (5) and Italian Soiree (3) over Her Laugh (4), Junta (5), Italian Soiree (3), La Cara (6), Dancing Music (2), Deloraine (1) and Queen in the Deck (7).