Race 8 at Turfway Park | Saturday January 13 | Post Time 9:25 PM Eastern

Likely Exchange Stakes | Purse $125,000 | One Mile | Fillies & Mares, Four Years Old and Upward

 

Analysis and top win contenders:

Ghostly Gal (9) gets preference among four fairly strong win contenders in this field of 11, mostly because she opens at 10 to 1 odds. The reason for those high odds is she just won a claiming level race and has never run in a stakes race, as compared to recent My Charmer Stakes winner Catiche (2), who starts at four to one odds, or as compared to Flashy Gem (8), a recent winner over the track and runner-up in last year’s Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park. However, it appears that big drop in class from an allowance race in January to the claiming ranks (for the first time) last month was an error in judgement on the part of her trainer, who was saddling the mare for the first time. Luckily for him and owner Tommy Town Thoroughbreds, Ghostly Gal was not claimed. Before the layoff, Ghostly Gal had finished in the money in all three two-turn route races on all-weather, at Golden Gate in California. Her win on 12/21 at this mile trip at Turfway with a career-best 99 Equibase Speed Figure tells us all we need to know as to whether she fits because when winning the similar My Charmer Stakes at Turfway Park, also in December, Catiche earned a 104 figure. As we can expect improvement second off the long layoff, and with the tactical speed to be first or second in the early stages then kick nicely as she did when ridden out to a 12 length victory, Ghostly Gal has all the makings of an upset winner in this field.

Catiche (2) is also making her second start off a layoff, as her win in the My Charmer came following seven months off. She broke her maiden on all-weather at Gulfstream Park in March of 2022 and stepped up in class in the Oaks, finishing well from eighth of 12 early with no shot to catch four length winner Candy Raid. Two races later, Catiche ran exceptionally well in the Grade 2 Selene Stakes at Woodbine, then won an allowance race with a then career-best 103 Equibase Speed Figure. She was off for eight months following a poor 11^th place effort on turf in the summer of 2022, returning for a fine runner-up in May of last year, but then something kept her away from the races again. However, like Ghostly Gal, Catiche fired big time in the My Charmer to earn a 104 figure which, if repeated, and if Ghostly Gal doesn’t improve off her last start, may give Catiche back-to-back stakes wins at the meeting.

Even though Ghostly Gal and Catiche are strong contenders, the depth in the field doesn’t end with them as Flashy Gem (8) must be respected, although opening as the 5 to 2 favorite she may be the least favorable horse for a win bet. Flash Gem showed a strong liking for Turfway Park last year when winning by six lengths in February at this mile trip, then stepping up in class to finish second in the Bourbonette Oaks, the same race Catiche finished second in the previous year. She won on turf two races later, last summer, then finished third and 10^th on grass but when returned to the all-weather track at Turfway Park last month, Flashy Gem ran as well as Ghostly Gal and nearly as well as Catiche, winning by seven lengths and earning a 98 figure. Considering she had earned a 104 figure in last year’s Oaks, even better can be expected today and that means we could have a heck of a stretch battle with up to four of these horses in the thick of the action.

Lilac Girl (6) rounds out the strong quartet of contenders to win or to complete the exacta in this race. She’s a perfect two-for-two on all-weather, with both wins coming at Turfway Park and her last two efforts suggest she’s going to run another “A” race here. Lilac Girl ran poorly when fifth three races back but had been away for five months. She then won gamely at Keeneland in October at a mile on grass, with a 96 figure, before getting up by a neck on 12/7 in her first start at Turfway since breaking her maiden two years earlier. She making her second start at the meeting and has room to improve.

Bets:

Win: ALL four win contenders above have about the same chance to win, but considering the 10 to 1 starting odds on Ghostly Gal (9), we should start with her and consider a win bet at odds of 7 to 2 or more.

Then, if either Catiche (2), Flashy Gem (8) or Lilac Girl (6) have odds around 7 to 2 or more, I would consider a second win bet on the one with the highest odds near post time.

Exacta:

Box Catiche (2), Lilac Girl (6), Flashy Gem (8) and Ghostly Gal (9).

Trifecta:

Box Catiche (2), Lilac Girl (6), Flashy Gem (8) and Ghostly Gal (9).